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against_all_odds_ OP t1_j8wd4cu wrote

FYI: The data for both Bitcoin price and Google search interest has been scaled together to 100%. I forgot the title in the code erroneously stating "(1 year)", but it's "(5 years)" in actuality.

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BourboneAFCV t1_j8wf6dz wrote

Bitcoin Follows the US Economy, Whatever happens over there, it will follow, Like interest rates and US GDP

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Skeletorthewise t1_j8wifnx wrote

If bitcoin goes up, people start to searching more info about it.

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SnooPeripherals1914 t1_j8wkh5b wrote

Traditionally you’d express this with an r sq instead of just eye-balling trend lines…

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talks-a-lot t1_j8wlv5p wrote

Quick. Everyone google bitcoin price. We’ll be rich!

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ilindson t1_j8wnq2k wrote

The correlation is that when people start hearing the price went up or that people are making money with it they do research on it, the same can probably be seen with many different "fads"

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daKoabi t1_j8wo923 wrote

I would say it's the other way around. The more people are interested the higher the value goes. You know media reports all that stuff makes people Google and then buy it. So in that sense they are correlated

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PandaMomentum t1_j8x22eo wrote

Scatterplot the two vars and do a Pearson's rho (on day z the price of bitcoin was $x and the search count on Google was y, for each day in T)

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1_km_coke_line t1_j8x8eo0 wrote

Graph the second derivative of the bitcoin price to see the real trend here.

Google search volume spikes whenever the price is actively pumping/dumping.

EDIT: I realize I meant “absolute value of the first time derivative of the price.” instead of “second derivative”.

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PredictorX1 t1_j8xdknd wrote

I think this would be better visualized as a graph of price vs. searches (or some smooth of searches) rather than both versus time.

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CommodoreSixty4 t1_j8xijvq wrote

Price Goes Up -> Number of Headlines Goes Up -> Number of Search Results Goes Up -> Number of clicks on said results goes up

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Brodie_C t1_j8y7z7v wrote

You should expand this to show 2017 data which was the bull cycle before this one.

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mr_bojangals t1_j8y9g2u wrote

Correlation coefficient? Also, I feel any stock that is increasing in value will have more searches. Like, stock price reflects popularity.

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Haleighoumpah t1_j8yb165 wrote

Would be interesting to see a similar chart for Dogecoin, the ultimate memecoin

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TomTheCuban t1_j8yd9um wrote

Anecdotally, spikes in search interest seem to be related to the large changes in the slope of the price. Cool graph, i agree with the r squared guy too

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Karnezar t1_j8ye81k wrote

Bitcoin went up when more people bought it, a side effect was googling how to buy it.

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hxckrt t1_j8yg6uj wrote

Replying to against_all_odds_ (#1,844,720)

Naked caveman eyeballs are not that useful for answering how much they're correlated, and any follow-up questions like which one is leading. Do you know how to do statistical tests? If you do, why are you asking?

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hxckrt t1_j8yhypi wrote

Replying to 1_km_coke_line (#1,845,009)

It's probably a combination of the first and second. The second is true if there are just as many shorts as longs, and it's only people that are checking the price, or other neutral interest. If it's late adopters getting in for the first time, that would be retail going mostly long, and waning interest causing smart money to go short, so that's just the rate of change.

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Kjh007 t1_j8ykmkm wrote

You can likely insert any topic and it’s demand level and they’ll be a correlation.

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jamesj t1_j8yn0ap wrote

Replying to Skeletorthewise (#1,842,740)

To really see which effect comes first, a time-lagged cross-correlation plot would be super helpful. Whenever I've done these in the past I've seen the price movement precedes things like tweet activity, google searches, and reddit posts.

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SaintUlvemann t1_j8yz6pi wrote

Replying to What-Fries-Beneath (#1,842,484)

All the efforts of all the cryptocurrencies in the world haven't yet reached the level of day-to-day practical utility as a McDonald's giftcard; because I can spend the giftcard to buy the hamburger, but there is no store anywhere around me that accepts Bitcoin, or any other cryptocurrency.

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sundios t1_j8yzkx3 wrote

Google trends does not get you search volume, it gives you interest of the query. Keyword planner gets you search volume, but it has a 2 month lag.

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LotLizard55 t1_j8z47w5 wrote

Replying to What-Fries-Beneath (#1,842,484)

Collectible-> store of value -> medium of exchange. Would you rather hold a McDonald’s gift card for the next decade or bitcoin. 99% of crypto is vaporware riding on bitcoins coat tails. I do not disagree majority has 0 utility today

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Weatherman_Phil t1_j8z8ac6 wrote

Yes, when the price goes up, people search it more on Google

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What-Fries-Beneath t1_j8z8b6h wrote

Replying to LotLizard55 (#1,850,613)

McDonalds gift card for a day which I would exchange for a burger. I might take the money I would otherwise have spent and invest it in some vehicle which offers some degree of oversight/regulation, for example a mutual fund, bond, or currency stake, and the backing of a powerful entity like say a government.

As opposed to "investing" in this week's comp sci program dropout's first live software project based on an ultimately insignificant, artificially and nearly arbitrarily derived slice of an infinite distribution of numbers in geometric space.

The day shitcoins truly have utility is the day they become indistinguishable from "real" money with all the regulations, transparency, and backing of currency, investment, and banking today. Until then they're just a ponzi treadmill

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pizza_alarm t1_j8zbcuj wrote

This makes me think of the causation = correlation lecture I got in college where the prof mentioned that suicides rise nationally when Nicholas Cage movies premier.

Best lecture ever.

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LotLizard55 t1_j8zcgqw wrote

Replying to What-Fries-Beneath (#1,850,904)

Sir, when you look across the world, do you feel like governments have your best interest at heart? Highest debt/gdp since WW2. Aging demographics and rising interest rates. They are going to inflate the debt away or default there is no alternative. I like bitcoin because it lets me opt out with a portion of my saving in a money that can’t be corrupted by 12 people around a table in Washington. Im going to be paying social security my whole life and I’m lucky if I see a penny from it.

We are very privileged in the west to have bank accounts and access to financial products. A lot of the world does not have that but they do have an internet connection and can access bitcoin.

The beautiful thing is that the market will decide over time. Me and your opinion don’t matter in long run.

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Lebowski304 t1_j8zg3zt wrote

There does seem to be a relationship but it is complex

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AbuSydney t1_j8zg7yw wrote

Why would you not just divide the two values and see how far away from a horizontal line the metric changes? And how often. Then look at autocorrelation to see if there is a time dependence.

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What-Fries-Beneath t1_j8zjjj8 wrote

Replying to LotLizard55 (#1,851,256)

>Sir, when you look across the world, do you feel like governments have your best interest at heart?

To some extent yes. In most democratic governments most of the people are just ordinary folk who rather than building lives around power and influence, they wanted a steady job with decent benefits. They have families which are more important to them than their 9-5. They don't want their friends and families with similarly modest lives to get fucked by the rich and powerful right and left.

Granted many->most politicians are narcissistic douchebags. Nearly ALL aspiring CEOs are narcissistic douchebags. Especially in finance. "My greatest dream is to get rich quick while providing minimal value". That's the sociopathic motto of finance.

>money that can’t be corrupted by 12 people around a table in Washington.

You prefer less people with zero oversight and far less accountability...

>The beautiful thing is that the market will decide over time.

The libertarian religion isn't beautiful to most of us. It has been resoundingly disproven by history. Regulations are written in blood.

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srv50 t1_j8zkjw3 wrote

How fucked is an investment idea where investors make decisions on internet news?

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zippadeedooda1 t1_j8zkz0e wrote

Like a sailboat… subject to the changes of the search winds…

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CanadianKumlin t1_j8zl5mz wrote

More like the searches are correlated to the price.

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thehallmarkcard t1_j8zms69 wrote

This is really only meaningful if the google trends statistics are a leading indicator. Perhaps a Granger Causality test would best express if there is a relationship here.

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FUSeekMe69 t1_j8zp9ht wrote

Bitcoins volatility is its publicity

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Enviid t1_j8zucja wrote

Y’all search Bitcoin right now. EVERYONE!!

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Ignitus1 t1_j8zvhss wrote

Why didn’t you just do the math and find out? You’re halfway there already.

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Holyskankous t1_j8zxau6 wrote

It is. Except when it isn’t.

50% of the time it works every-time

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2nra95 t1_j8zyr8q wrote

I'd like to see if the derivative of the Bitcoin price is correlated with search

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WavingToWaves t1_j9000tl wrote

Well, even better, bitcoin price jumps are a cause for search volume, you can predict google search and bet on it!

Btw this is wrong sub for this

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prof-jimmy t1_j90hvya wrote

H2 2021 was SBf/Alameda peak market manipulation and the only divergence from the general trend

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buwefy t1_j90ooqw wrote

Lol the only correct price for Bitcoin is 0 (although I wish there's enough stupid people out there who keep buying and.pusj the price up, since I'm among them)

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jrm19941994 t1_j914nmm wrote

Looks like higher volatility in bitcoin is correlated to increased search interest in near future.

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ArvinaDystopia t1_j916g1f wrote

In this thread: people not even looking at the fact that there's no apparent correlation before making regurgitating "correlation is not causation" or "let's all google it!".

I mean, I'm glad people have learned that correlation does not necessarily imply a direct causal link, but can you guys at least look at what you're commenting on?

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crimeo t1_j927xps wrote

Looks pretty obviously to me like searching here shortly follows "big changes either way" just as you'd expect intuitively. Okay and?

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Alone-Monk t1_j92kbfb wrote

I think the absolute value of derivative graph of the Bitcoin price might show an interesting story

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ali-n t1_j92pe5r wrote

Replying to jrm19941994 (#1,855,948)

Because, clearly, you are not doing your share of cheese consumption. Some people don't eat any at all, so you obviously need to bump your consumption way up in order to drive that average upwards.

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dataisbeautiful-ModTeam t1_j93luut wrote

/u/against_all_odds_, thank you for your contribution. However, your submission was removed for the following reason(s):

  • [OC] posts must state the data source(s) and tool(s) used in the first top-level comment on their submission. Please follow the AutoModerator instructions you were sent carefully. Once this is done, message the mods to have your post reinstated.

This post has been removed. For information regarding this and similar issues please see the DataIsBeautiful posting rules.

If you have any questions, please feel free to message the moderators.

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against_all_odds_ OP t1_j972scz wrote

u/dataisbeautiful-ModTeam :

Sources:

  1. Google Trends, Web search volume for word "Bitcoin" (Period: 2018 - 2023, Location: Worldwide): https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=bitcoin
  2. Bitcoin price in USD, Coinmarketcap : https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin
  3. Software visualization: Python-PK, PyTrends, Matplotlib

I hereby declare, that I have myself created this content using the mentioned tools and by combining the listed data sources together. My contribution is scaling the different sized scales of both variables (search volume and Bitcoin price) to the same common scale, so viewers can compare easily the grown of both functions.

P.S: I will try to post in future an improved version of this post with first and second derivatives of both functions.

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fasnoosh t1_j9adno2 wrote

Replying to SnooPeripherals1914 (#1,842,902)

You’d want to create a scatterplot, with one data point per x value on the line chart, and in the scatterplot, x & y axis represents each trendline color. Then, you could fit that with a model (maybe linear regression), and from that model you could get some metrics out of it, like R squared & confidence intervals

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