UsefulEngine1 t1_j9g30am wrote on February 21, 2023 at 5:49 PM

So you're saying to win you have to score more goals than the other guys

Hyper-Fluid OP t1_j9g61tl wrote on February 21, 2023 at 6:08 PM

Actually, on average, no! You could imagine losing by 5 goals for 4 games (-20 differential) and then winning by 1 goal for 6 games (+6 differential). On average you are -14 diff, but a winning record.

As a counter example, consider the Raiders (NFL) last preseason game and first 6 regular season games from this past season. Their scoring differential was +20, but their record was 3-4. I'm sure there are more extreme real life examples when you can have a highly positive (or negative) scoring differential, along with a counterintuitive record.

FWIW, the Canes and the Kings are actually overperforming (they are winning more games than you would expect, given their scoring differential), so far this season.

NarcissusLovesEcho t1_j9g7axj wrote on February 21, 2023 at 6:16 PM

In baseball, this is called the Pythagorean W-L stat. It correlates very strongly with actual W-L but not perfectly. Some teams over/underperform.

Hyper-Fluid OP t1_j9gdvgd wrote on February 21, 2023 at 7:18 PM

Cool, I haven't heard of that before!

Edit: Actually I just ran through calculating this stat. The comparison with points is pretty much the same as the above, as you might expect. Comparing this stat to the goal differential though; every team is on a tight line with the exception of the ducks, who are underperforming (relative to this statistic). Plots here: https://twitter.com/Super_Fluid_/status/1628115662261587968