Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

Barra79 OP t1_jawicfu wrote

I'd like to explain why I am only taking the wind speed in Hamburg. Based on my graph, I believe it is reasonable for someone in Hamburg to argue that if it is not windy there at a given time, then it is very unlikely that Germany as a whole is generating much in the way of electricity from Wind Power. However, if I average out the wind in Germany to produce this graph, then no such claim can be made. Instead it can be argued that if it's calm in Hamburg it is still very likely that it is windy in many other parts of Germany, resulting in lots of Wind Power anyway. Furthermore, if I produce the above graph for Bremen, I get a very similar correlation. So a person in Bremen can make a similar claim as that mentioned above for Hamburg. With regard to Berlin, the correlation is still clear, but not a tight as above.





Reelplayer t1_jawmtmc wrote

Wouldn't the real data be generation at a single turbine related to wind speed? Energy generated by wind throughout an entire country is kind of useless information without the context of what went into creating that source and what it takes to maintain it.


ButterflyCatastrophe t1_jawve0q wrote

It depends what you're trying to show. Wind speed vs power for a single turbine is just physics. Weight all of the local wind speeds by the number of turbines on the grid, and you'd get a more precise national estimate. Based on OP's comments, I'd guess that a lot of Germany's wind power comes from Bremen.

OP has produced a bunch of 'some kind of marker for windy day' against 'power from various sources.' The set lets you tell that wind substitutes for petroleum, presumably because gas and oil plants are more dynamic than nuclear or coal. It seems like he's picked a city that's reasonably representative and accessible to humans, rather than a complicated formula that might be more predictive but not useful to readers. It gives the impression that there's got to be a pretty good wind blowing before you get much out of wind.

Might be helpful to have a histogram of wind speed at the bottom, so reader can get some sense of how often wind power is a significant factor.


MattOfMatts t1_jawt9nu wrote

Averages are fine but the power grid also cannot run on averages. You need supply to equal demand at all times. The spread on this chart is very large, with 10-20GW of difference for any given wind speed.

So while your math is fair, the application of it seems somewhat pointless. It does the grid no good that the average of wind is a certain value, instead the real time value is all that really matters.

Either we invest in more the storage or raise the amount of wind production to raise the lowest minimums, then the math changes. but then the outliers become more critical in analyzing, because failure to account for all outliers results in loss of power.


Lambylambowski t1_jawtmjh wrote

Wind does blow in only one place and never changes speed so, this checks out.


johnnyGotHisTabla t1_jaylx5g wrote

>Instead it can be argued that if it's calm in Hamburg it is still very likely that it is windy in many other parts of Germany

The industry way to capture this is with a portfolio benefit analysis.

I don't know how safe your assumption is in Germany.

I am far more familiar with wind regimes in the States. If you have a plant in northern Texas, another in Iowa, another in the Columbia River valley in Oregon, and the last in Tehachapi pass in Cali, you have a full portfolio benefit lol