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reduhl t1_jdweywi wrote

Based on this. It will take a long time after the EU stops selling fossil fuel vehicles to have them leave the road.

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PyrrhoTheSkeptic t1_jdwjeqj wrote

Yes. I am not in the EU, but people can drive cars for many years, especially if they take decent care of them. My previous car I kept for 21 years, and it was still reliable. I would probably still be driving it, but my wife wanted some nicer features and so I bought a new car. I plan on keeping it until after 2040, unless something happens to it, or it turns out to be less reliable than expected. Given my age, this may be the last car I ever buy.

My guess is, some gasoline cars will still be on the road 50 years after no new ones are made, unless a ban on them is enacted. Some people like antique cars and drive them occasionally. Probably, a ban on them is the only way that they will be completely eliminated from the road in the foreseeable future.

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Imaginary_Scene2493 t1_jdwsajk wrote

Or we reach a point, say 20 years from now, where gasoline distribution becomes so limited that it’s no longer economical to keep a gas powered car.

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PyrrhoTheSkeptic t1_jdwvc1o wrote

I don't think we are going to reach that point in 20 years from now. I think it will be much later on, unless government regulations require them to close down.

Right now, the EU is planning on allowing the selling of new gasoline cars up through 2034. Since it is 2023 now, if gasoline were no longer distributed 20 years from now (2043), there would be cars that are only 9 years old when gasoline would no longer be distributed in the EU. That would cause significant hardship for poorer people who cannot afford new cars.

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Notice, even in Luxembourg, which has the highest percentage of newer cars (according to the chart of the opening post), over 25% have cars over 9 years old (it is 25% who have cars over 10 years old, so it must be more than 25% for those having cars over 9 years old). All of the other countries have a higher percentage of older cars on the road.

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In the U.S., where I live, it is likely to be longer that gasoline will be widely distributed than will be the case in the EU, so I expect to not run into that issue with my current car.

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krichuvisz t1_jdy0wba wrote

At one point EV kits for used cars are going to become very cheap. Or carbon free gas alternatives.

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reduhl t1_je082su wrote

Ya I can see carbon neutral fuels coming on line. The airline industry needs this to function. I can see it carrying over to the automarket. In europe it will probably be truly carbon neutral or negative.

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MeMoses t1_jdy52mn wrote

Not as long as you might expect. Average lifespan of cars in Europe is 18 years. Sure there are outliers and cars might have a longer life in poorer countries but that is a good starting point. The fossil fuel ban on new cars is set to take effect in 2035. So even if a car is bought on 31.12.2034 it will likely fail by 2053. Just 10% (on average) of cars fall under this category. The other 90% will probaply fail well before that and be replaced with a vehicle that's not using fossil fuels.

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