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cavscout43 t1_jbg0wk1 wrote

Japan Takes Over the World is very much an 80s/90s trope, that was rooted in perceived reality. From action comedies like Back to the Future Part II where future Marty's boss is Japanese, to Die Hard in Nakatomi Plaza, to large swathes of Bladerunner looking like a Japanese/American hybrid future....the future was expected to be Japan.

Few saw the systemic economic problems looming, the demographic time bomb ticking down, the growing asset bubble, and so on. Japan in the early 90s had a significantly higher GDP per capita than the US.

In '91 geopolitical analyst George Friedman predicted there'd be a shooting war by a weak and threatened US trying to contain an all powerful Japan. Now, Japan is #28 or so in GDP per capita, down below Kuwait and Taiwan. Their population dropped by over half a million last year.

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nikhoxz t1_jbg6e8h wrote

>They also considered that Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution was only a "legal fiction" and would not prevent Japanese rearmament or aggression

Well, at least he got this right, but Japan in the 80's was still a military powerhouse, they had the 5th largest navy in the world, they still have the 5th largest today but in the 80's they were more defense focused, now they have a lot more attack capabilities and will have even more in the next years with their huge Tomahawk cruise missiles adquisitions, the new ASEV ships and the two reconverted Izumo class into aircraft carriers.

But this happened today with a "weak" economy so Japan's Self Defense Forces will never be as powerful as US Armed Forces... now is China the one that took Japan's place in this hypothetiical future.

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Josquius t1_jbipam5 wrote

Its interesting that though China is on a similar trajectory and hasn't quite reached the bursting bubble point, the media has very much moved on from the "The future is Chinese!" trope.

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cavscout43 t1_jbjfhon wrote

China's issue is more complex:

  1. They're aging much faster than they're growing wealthy as a country
  2. Their wealth inequality is vast. Japan is still in the top 15 for median household wealth (the US is 20 something by comparison)
  3. A lot of the key metrics from China are opaque, smoothed, and questionable. Unemployment rates, for example are always 4-5% per government reports. Regardless of macroeconomic factors like recessions or economic booms. Those have multiple times been called out since they don't include rural or migrant workers, and some reports have suggested double-digit unemployment rates are common year to year.
  4. China is still in the Middle Income Trap. The question is if enough of the wealthy urban coastal cities can generate enough to balance out the much more impoverished rural interior as a whole, and if they're willing to do so.
  5. In contemporary history, the only countries to truly achieve high income status have done so with (relatively) liberal democracies, representative governments, and promoting progressive societal policies of various flavors. China is trying to break ground as a truly authoritarian police state wielding state capitalism strategically, and leveraging police/surveillance state technology to the fullest. To what outcomes very much remains to be seen. If they're successful, we may see far more iron-fisted style governments supported by, and emulating them. If they fail, it may be evidence that you can't turn a highly controlled society into a wealthy one, such as Singapore, at any real scale.
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DIYThrowaway01 t1_jbf3rqr wrote

Japan was absolutely HAULING back then. Crazy how the turntables

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schooledbrit t1_jbg08yr wrote

Still is, although of course not as much as before.

Bank of Japan is still the only nation with a higher asset-to-GDP ratio than the US Federal Reserve.

Japan has also been the world's largest creditor nation (by net international investment position) for the last 30 years

https://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/

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mynameismy111 t1_jbn1wql wrote

The US is still wealthier than them

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_wealth

Us 145 trillion China 85 Japan 25 Germany 17

While everyone else grew since 2000 Japan still nearly the same

2000 Japan was half of us wealth Now 1/6

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schooledbrit t1_jbpg9h4 wrote

Median wealth is a better metric. Japan's median wealth is higher than that of US and Sweden, and double that of Germany.

Of course this doesn't take into account the trillions in banks

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tabrisangel t1_jbgut45 wrote

Japan is literally one of the very worst economies on earth.

Crippling debt and 2 times as many people dieing each year then are being born.

I think it's the only economy in the world that's smaller than it was 1994.

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angelic_soldier t1_jbj59z5 wrote

3rd largest GDP in the world is one of the worst? Oof, I feel bad for everyone further down the list.

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schooledbrit t1_jbmhzc4 wrote

That's the funny part. Over half of the Government of Japan's debt is owned by the Bank of Japan. It's like being in debt to yourself.

They're ridiculously good at managing money. So good that in fact, if you investigate it closely it is the other countries that are in debt to them.

Also many countries in Europe, including almost every country in Southern Europe and Scandinavian countries like Finland have lower fertility rates than Japan

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mynameismy111 t1_jbn23vy wrote

If they were so good they wouldn't of dropped from half the wealth of the US in 2000 to now 1/6th

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_wealth

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schooledbrit t1_jbpg41k wrote

Japan still has a higher median wealth than that of US or Sweden, and double that of Germany

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

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314per t1_jbfzt62 wrote

Yep, in the same way that crypto was hauling in 2021 😉

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FidjiC7 t1_jbfhovk wrote

Crazy to see 4 French banks (including mine) in this ranking.

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indeterminate_ t1_jbg1oc8 wrote

My goodness. It's fascinating to note just how drastically the landscape has changed, with regards to the composition at the top.

One wonders how this current regime might conclude

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Dal90 t1_jbgfxuj wrote

Also consider this was before bank mergers in the US really started getting BIG.

1980s was the time of creating regional powerhouses, 1990s saw those regional powerhouses start combining into nationwide retail banks. Post 2008 saw forced mergers and blurring between investment and retail banks trying to save each other (by Federal arm twisting). Five of the top 25 are now American banks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_banks while Japan has 4 of the top 25.

Inflation adjusted, $353B = $873B in 2022 which today would put a bank about 45th globally.

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NikonuserNW t1_jbhmzxd wrote

Interstate banking in the US wasn’t really a thing until…the mid 90s? Once banks started branching out across the country, they got pretty big.

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Time_Possibility4683 t1_jbhah6n wrote

The top 4 being all Chinese when none of them was on the list in the 80's is a huge shift.

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Weatherman_Phil t1_jbg45ko wrote

I'm honestly more surprised by France on the list multiple times

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VanillaLoaf t1_jbfvzp1 wrote

Disappointing that Tomato Bank isn't there.

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madmanNamedMatti t1_jbh3l3l wrote

So basic bar charts are data is beautiful material now? My second grade niece could throw this together on excel

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FahkDizchit t1_jbh7qdn wrote

Today, the 10th largest bank in the US has more assets than the largest bank on this list. The largest bank in the US has almost 10x the assets of the largest bank on this list.

sauce

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Purple_Jamboree t1_jbhsvif wrote

Chinese banks now replaces the top Japanese spots. Does history rhyme next?

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cepegma t1_jbghr0y wrote

It’s insane how the finance world has changed since then. Japanese banks are almost disappeared from the today’s financial landscape

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[deleted] t1_jbgl653 wrote

[deleted]

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cepegma t1_jbin28l wrote

In Asia, yes but at global scale the big players are mostly American 🇺🇸 banks 🏦 like Goldman Sachs

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