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DearSurround8 t1_jcffbl8 wrote

Here's the rub. If it were a true spillover event, the evidence would be EVERYWHERE. There would be so much worldwide evidence of a spillover that we wouldn't have even considered a lab leak scenario. In the absence of spillover evidence there are essentially two options 1) Wuhan was the epicenter of an extremely unlikely random combination of viruses leading to a pandemic capable SARS-CoV-2, or it somehow leaked from that lab. If I were a betting man, my money is on an accidental leak.

Origin aside, the CCP stopped all domestic flights from Wuhan weeks before they stopped all international flights. They knew about it and intentionally spread it to the rest of the world through that deliberate choice.

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Bubbagumpredditor t1_jcfk3bz wrote

Sooo many [citations needed]

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DearSurround8 t1_jcfl53g wrote

That's the problem, isn't it? There are no citations for what happened inside of China during the early pandemic. From what we know about epidemiology and spillover events, there simply isn't much evidence to point to said spillover. In the absence of evidence, people will look toward other possibilities and assess the likelihood of those possibilities. In this case, given the lack of evidence, this does not look like a spillover, and the next likely option is a lab leak.

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mukenwalla t1_jch0lrp wrote

I wouldn't say "extremely unlikely random combination of viruses leading to a pandemic" considering that is exactly what happened a few years prior with the SARS-CoV-1 virus. And we have evidence of it being a spill over event based on early cases surrounding the markets of Wuhan. The truth is we don't know right now what the origin was.

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DearSurround8 t1_jchdc19 wrote

The evidence of the SARS-CoV-1 spillover is still around. You can still find the precursor virus in specific bat populations. There is also an evidence trail for the spillover of MERS. The same type of evidence trail does not exist for SARS-CoV-2. We do not know the original host animal. We still have not found the precursor virus(s).

I know that the absence of evidence does not prove anything, but in this case the absence of evidence is conspicuous. Either it wasn't a spillover event, or our entire understanding of spillover events is incorrect. Occam's razor applies here. We have hunted extensively for the origins SARS-CoV-2, in every way allowed by the Chinese government, and still have not found conclusive evidence of a spillover. I find the lab leak hypothesis to be far more plausible than a complete misunderstanding of how spillover events work in the 21st century.

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mukenwalla t1_jchhb3w wrote

You're not wrong. I hope we get more information about this. The lack of a transparent investigation means wemay never have a full picture.

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mynameismy111 t1_jcog61g wrote

Unlikely

Guess how many virus interact and spread every day in a wet market

One, dozens, millions?

Trillions?

About 10 to the 10-30 range

Combination of viruses? No, how did the variants since alpha form? Delta, omicron, Oh wait lab leak, got us there

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