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mildlypresent t1_jdo9xpt wrote

Currently snow pack in the Colorado River Basin is about 1.5x the 30 yr average, but that average is pulled down because the last 23 years have been in an epically historic drought.

It will be one of the better years in the last 30, but it's probably not going to be much more than what we use in any given year.

In 1921 we divied up the river assuming an average flow of 16.5 million acre feet. We've since calculated the average from the last 2000 years as about 14.5. The last 20 have averaged about 12.5.

Of that 16.5, california was awarded 4.4. California's plan to reconcile the over allocation is basically to throw up the middle finger and let the courts sort it out. The other six states came up with a plan that asks California to take a cut, but a much smaller cut than any other state.

Worst case scenario California has to give up about 1 million acre feet. Mostly likely scenario California looses 600k-800k (14%-18%ish).

Keep in minde most of that water goes to agriculture. Cites don't use that much.

To make up for the lost water; about 150k-300k could be saved from improving evaporation and leak issues in the canels system. Another few hundred by more efficient agricultural use. And another 100-150 from desalination.

Bottom line:

Don't get too worried about it. Media has a lot of doom and gloom. We deserve some shame for ignoring the issue we've known about for 50 years. In the end you'll just have to pay more for water and deal with politicians grand standing about lawns and pools.

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