I made this map/infographic with ArcGIS Pro software and Adobe Illustrator for finishing. I started with the US Bureau of the Census population aggregated at the county level. Next, I computed the shortest distance drive paths from each county seat to the intersections of major highways and the centerline of the eclipse, which I digitized. From this I apply a distance-decay model that assumes a high estimate of 2% visitation from 200 miles away and a low estimate of 0.5% visitation. I apply this model for each county, weighing distance and population counts, and derive these estimates. This and other infographics are at https://www.greatamericaneclipse.com/2024-total-solar-eclipse-over-the-united-states

Looks like Erie PA it is then

What in the absolute fuck is this?

The shortest drive to the eclipse next year in April. The path of totality is going over Texas to Maine.

And the inclusion of watersheds with predictions of how many people will drive to see the ecplipse?

What do the different sun sizes represent? Popularity of the locations for eclipse viewing?

Right over my house, can't wait

If you want to go real crazy, you can gather the cloud data for that date over the course of x amount of years and provide a probability of clear skies for a specific region.

For anyone wondering, texas is more likely to have less cloud cover. In addition, Mazatlan Mexico has even less cloud cover. For those vacation lovers.

Not watersheds. Roadways showing estimated traffic volume as people travel to see the eclipse. Think of the roads as rivers and the traffic as water.

They are scaled to how many people are predicted to converge at the location

Good point, but difficult. There are many imponderables I’ve not taken into account. For example, a big eclipse festival in one area may draw disproportionate number of people. And people in some geographies may be more inclined to drive, say wealth is a factor. You can really go down a rabbit hole, but I kept it simple

Take a minute and read the description. The amount of dumb people on Reddit is astounding

Same! Joke’s on them, I have to drive 0 miles! Neener neener.

What’s up with the two black hwys in south Texas?

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I went to the last one and there were ton of Canadians we met. What's the info on that?

Same! Might do a little camping during that time.

Thanks for this info! I didn’t know there was an eclipse coming up.

One occurred a few years ago in late August right around my mom’s birthday. The path went just south of my hometown, 300 miles south of Chicagoland. I was going to take my boys to see it and celebrate her birthday, but it was just after school started. When I heard how many people planned to got SIU to see a special presentation on the eclipse, I decided against pulling them out of school. Glad I did. Motels were booked. Several of their classmates went and were stuck on I-57 for hours coming back the next day.

I see this one is heading to the northeast from Mexico and Texas through Maine and Quebec instead of the southeast from Washington through St. Louis to the Carolinas. I think that’s due to the Earth’s tilt at that time of year. No?

I see it is going directly over my hometown and Indianapolis. Indy is going to be PACKED with Chicagoans. If I go, I’ll take 57 to my mom’s house and hope the traffic’s not too bad going down that way — and back.

And then there were clouds. Amen.

Same! I've been waiting on this for years!

I have family in Burlington Vermont. “Inflate the guest bed, we’re headed your way!”

Please don't. The atmosphere is filling with harmful greenhouse gases as you may have heard. Please just look at pictures instead I promise it will be better for everybody.

It’s still going to get dark.

In the middle of the day.

Quickly.

In the span of a couple minutes It goes from “shadows are weird shaped!” to “okay, weird light, like when it’s snowing but sun shines through a bit” to “huh, THIS ain’t right” to full-on “ohmygod…” except whispered, because it feels wrong to speak out loud in normal voice.

I drove three hours last time to park at the side of a dirt road running through a field. Totally worth it.

This is why I chose Arkansas over Illinois, despite the latter being closer!

Word to the wise - don't plan on returning home the day of the eclipse. Get a place to stay the day before AND the day of the eclipse, and drive home the day after when the roads have cleared.

I saw the 2017 eclipse just east of Hopkinsville, KY. Afterwards the parkways were a parking lot, it took us three hours to go 30 miles to US 431. Cellular data was completely jammed so no luck using navigation apps - if you had pre-downloaded area maps, GPS might have worked, since GPS itself is passive. Gas stations at the parkway exits quickly ran out of gas - we finally found gas about ten miles north of Central City. The Ohio River bridges at Evansville and Louisville were backed up for hours; we slipped across the lesser-known bridge at Rockport on US 231 where there was no back-up.

I live and work in the Indianapolis area, and I will be advocating for the office to close at 2:00 pm that day to allow the staff to get home before the roads are clogged - the eclipse ends right around 3:15, so the afternoon commute will be virtually impossible.

Yup. We live in Ohio along the path of totality, but are considering heading to Texas since we're about 80% likely to have a cloudy day.

Bingo - driving back from Tennessee to Cleveland after the 2017 was horrific. Special thanks to Cincinnati for having road work going on all along every freeway!

There is a little part in Florida too

i get to walk out my back door. thats it. i’m already there. cant wait.

I think a big oversight is Canadians? Toronto and Montreal are a short drive from totality. That will greatly inflate the north-east portions.

My house is almost slap in the middle of the totality line. I can't wait! Please excuse me if I used the wrong terminology.

Looks like the shortest drive for me (near Birmingham, AL) is to Hardy/Highland, AR.

Hmm... I might just be crazy enough to do it. I missed the 2017 one by more than 200 miles, as I was trying my damnedest to get back to Nashville in enough time, but it took a bit too long for my load to be ready.

Don't come to Erie Pa, it's going to be cloudy that day, I guarantee it.

Thank you for this. I was unaware of the event and it passes right over my house!

(1-minute duration - Austin Tx)

Cloud data and more found here: https://eclipsophile.com/2024tse/

I have family in southwestern Arkansas and I'm planning the same thing.

This is emotionally risky. If it ends up cloudless in Ohio and stormy in Texas, it would be arguably worst than if the eclipse didn't happen at all.

I lived in South Carolina during the last eclipse and now I'm smack dab in the middle of this one's path as well. It's usually pretty cloudy where I was living, but it was a beautiful day when the eclipse arrived. The reaction of the wildlife was pretty incredible, and it's the only effect that would be largely absent in the desert.

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Current forecasts are predicting that most Canadians will remain Canadian

Buddy you’ve got the best seat in the house! Nobody remembers the technical terminology during an eclipse because it leaves you speechless! you’re a lucky duck hope you get clear skies!

the world is on fire and witnessing totality in person is one of the most miraculous wonders of celestial and human happenstance when you’re on the skinny line between the sun the moon and you - a five minute chapter of one’s life so captivating that it’s memory will last as long as your memory does

alternative suggestion, figure out how where you can shave a little of your daily carbon output every day in the interim such that, once summed over time, you’ll at minimum break even with the carbon generated from you going to witness the eclipse. not perfect, the world remains on fire i know, but damn friend don’t let environmental guilt convince you to miss an eclipse you’d otherwise attend

So do I, I have been waiting on it... Well since the last one, but I am definitely taking the day off for this one.