Complete Blog Post text as well as Data Source for the n=79 eggs & R-Script to perform the analyses:

suRprise! - Classifying Kinder Eggs by Machine Learning

Wait, you don't have something in every egg??

It's either "plastic junk" or a "cool" collectable figure, which is usually part of a figure series! Some of the figures are collector's items and can be quite valuable (see e.g. https://www.eierlei-shop.de/ (in German)).

That's cool.

I just wish box and whisker plots were more intuitive. They look like the groups are the same, but they might not be? Is there a better way to visualize this?

Where was this exquisite graph when I was 6yo? Thanks, its great!

Looks like heavier is more likely to contain a figure. Could do a simple line graph of the percentage with figure (y) against the weight (x).

I actually preferred the toys, like some figures were OK, some were boring and just collectible and you couldn´t play with those.

Oh yeah, sometimes you get stickers or a puzzle or some other crap. If it’s not a little car, you know I’ll be mad I didn’t get that figure of a gnome that “transforms” into a hedgehog by laying it down

would have needed that back in the golden days of surprise eggs

something’s weird here. How can a kinder egg, which comes out of an automatic manufacturing facility, vary by up to 10g and still not have a toy inside? The median weight of the candy is about 32g, so how do you get +/-5g, a big difference for such a lightweight candy, so regularly if there’s not a toy inside?

Not sure I fully understand the comment, but the content of the egg is either some kind of toy or a figure. So what varies is the content of the egg, not the chocolate. For some example pictures see https://mhoehle.github.io/blog/2016/12/23/surprise.html.

The right hand plot gives an indication of such a plot. The blog post, where the figure is taken from, contains such a smoothed line obtained from applying some machine learning classification algorithm to the task (deliberate overkill! :-)).

http://staff.math.su.se/hoehle/blog/figure/source/2016-12-23-surprise/CLASSIFIEROUTPUT-1.png

Source: https://mhoehle.github.io/blog/2016/12/23/surprise.html

Agreed, I tried in https://mhoehle.github.io/blog/2016/12/23/surprise.html to calculate a functional shape.

so the chart’s kind of misleading. A reasonable person reading this (like me) would assume that “figure” is synonymous with “toy,” so we’re looking at whether or not the kinder egg had anything inside. But you’re saying what’s being measured here is whether it has something that you want, personally. So, that’s really confusing without an explanation

Thanks for the feedback and sorry, it could have been clearer that we distinguish between "figure" and "toy". I didn't know how to add any extra explanations to the image in Reddit. Thus the blog post contains further details.

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This guy is rich. As a kid I almost never bought Kinder eggs, too expensive.