sources
– incarceration
https://www.sentencingproject.org/the-facts/#map
– evangelical population
https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/religious-tradition/evangelical-protestant/
tool: Mathematica

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– the ellipses are centered on the Rep/Dem means;
the standard deviations are represented by the ellipses' axes
– the 50 plot points represent the (evangelical, infant mortality) coordinates for each state;
and are colored according to their 2020 Electoral College vote
– "r" is the Pearson correlation value