Submitted by terrykrohe t3_yfcfk0 in dataisbeautiful
Comments
terrykrohe OP t1_iu2ujob wrote
- Purpose
In order to 'understand' the non-random, top/bottom, Rep/Dem differentiation of metric values, eight "response" metrics are correlated with three "predictor" metrics. This post presents the 'response' variable incarceration vs the evangelical 'predictor' metric.
... the eight "response" metrics: GDP, state taxes; suicide rate, opioids; life expectancy, infant mortality; incarceration, state+local ed spending;
... the three "predictor" metrics: 'rural-urban', evangelical, diversity* - the "big picture"
i) There is a non-random, top/bottom, Dem/Rep pattern. Patterns have reasons/causes and are mathematical.
ii) Rep states are always on the negative side (less GDP, more suicides, lower life expectancy, etc).
iii) How did 150 million voters, acting individually, separate the fifty states into two such disparate groups?
iv) is there a "predictive" metric or combination of metrics which can be used to explain the characteristic Rep/Dem differences seen in the data? - general comments
i) for Rep and Dem states: incarceration rate increases as evangelical increases; slopes are large and r-values are large
ii) the Dem r-value is larger than Rep r-value
iii) the large Rep and Dem slopes indicate that evangelical impact on incarceration is significant
iv) evangelical impact on all response metrics appears to be the most influential of the three predictor metrics:
GDP vs evangelical, posted 06Jan
state taxes vs evangelical, posted 03Feb
suicide rate vs evangelical, posted 03Mar
opioid dispensing rate vs evangelical, posted 12may
life expectancy vs evangelical, posted 06Aug
infant mortality vs evangelical, posted 01Sep
dassketch t1_iu40y5v wrote
Chart 1 seems to indicate a higher incarceration rate to Republican states. Chart 2 seems to imply a correlation of evangelical tendencies to Republicans. Chart 3 seems to show that it does party affiliation doesn't really matter in the face of evangelism and locking people up.
Conclusion, righteous is as righteous does. Not terribly surprised at this outcome. Seen plenty of self declared "liberals" who have just a mean streak of "do the crime, do the time" attitude with zero regard for circumstances.
685327593 t1_iu2zpkx wrote
This account is just a propaganda bot. Look at its lost history, this is literally all it does!
terrykrohe OP t1_iu35gp9 wrote
1
... the posts do have a uniform style; but the content of each post is unique
2
... the purpose of the post is explained in a previous comment: to repeat: there is a non-random top/bottom Rep/Dem differentiation of the data; in which, the Rep states are always on the negative side. This generality is worth noting and, even more worthy, is an investigation using other metrics to (maybe) unearth an explanation.
Montaigne, "Of Pedantry": has a quoted comment– 'I hate above all pedantic learning'; to which he adds – We labor only to fill our memory, and leave the understanding and conscience empty.
3
... this Rep/Dem differentiation has been noted elsewhere:
– https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-red-state-murder-problem
(see post 08Jul2021)
– https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/27/life-expectancy-us-conservative-liberal-states
(see post 29Jul2021)
685327593 t1_iu36gox wrote
The explanation is obvious: people who observe their tax money being constantly wasted on lazy people and criminals are more likely to become Conservative. It's a lot easier to have egalitarian views when you're not constantly faced with the system getting abused.
SelectionThis t1_iu3mv4y wrote
The explanation is obvious: conservative jurors are religious and stubbornly believe in inherent sin. They are therefore more likely to vote "guilty", independet of the actual guilt, evidence, case or whatever.
There. It's basically the opposite of your opinion and it is just as worthless and empty.
dassketch t1_iu412l4 wrote
Actually, what this shows is that holier than thou people love locking people up regardless of their party affiliation. Because punishment IS their religion.
685327593 t1_iu492lj wrote
Wish we sad some more of those people around here so I could actually use the subway without having to step over homeless people and fear for my life.
Narabedla t1_iu3g8eq wrote
This is something you can't get out of the data, that is something you believe.
The data just shows the correlation. It doesnt show whether states in that segment will just vote republican or if republican states will move into that segment (as a result of the policies). That interpretation is something everyone has to do for themselfs.
685327593 t1_iu3swty wrote
Oh, absolutely it's from my lived experience seeing why people vote the way they do. Obviously the data only shows the correlation, not the causation.
Me_Melissa t1_iu4pe0z wrote
Doesn't what you say imply that the poor in blue states are more well-behaved and less exploitative than the poor in red states?
What would you guess to be a reason for that?
685327593 t1_iu4ruem wrote
The reason is very obvious, but we're not supposed to talk about it on Reddit.
Me_Melissa t1_iu55z8m wrote
/u/terrykrohe would it be possible to do one plotting percentage of impoverished population that's black people against incarceration categorized by R and D?
Our boy here has a hypothesis for a cause of incarceration and surely the correlations for the "obvious explanation" will be stronger than the correlations for the alleged Effect of political affiliation.
terrykrohe OP t1_iu5f3ot wrote
I found data from the StLouis Fed Reserve and from the sentencing project source ... I will work something up
It would be a plot of black/white income ratio VS black/white incarceration ratio using the Rep/Dem state differentiation.
... thanks for the suggestion – it should be interesting
terrykrohe OP t1_iu2u6is wrote
sources
– incarceration
https://www.sentencingproject.org/the-facts/#map
– evangelical population
https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/religious-tradition/evangelical-protestant/
tool: Mathematica
***************
– the ellipses are centered on the Rep/Dem means;
the standard deviations are represented by the ellipses' axes
– the 50 plot points represent the (evangelical, infant mortality) coordinates for each state;
and are colored according to their 2020 Electoral College vote
– "r" is the Pearson correlation value