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This is absolutely insane

My absolute favorite thing about visualizing this data is the spike in finishers around the hour-marks. Sprinting for the finish line to get that PB!

It’s funny how people aim for whole numbers as goals, I wonder if a lot of these people could go faster if they weren’t focused on hitting 3:00:00, etc.

don't think that's something that's decided close to the finish line. people just like to pick a nice round number as their target and then pace themselves for it the whole race (and training of course).

That is basically sprinting for 2 hours straight (3.5 100 meters runs every single minute).

Holy shit, keeping an average 21kmh pace for 42km seems superhuman. That's a sprint for some people

We should make their watch go a tad faster without telling them. :-)

It's actually faster than most people can sprint. :-)

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This man runs for 2 hours straight witht the speed I can sprint

4:37 per mile pace...for 26 miles. Freaking insane.

69 seconds long of 2 hours.

Across 26.2 miles is only 2.6 seconds faster each mile... That is agonizingly close lol must be driving him nuts that he's the closest anyone has ever been, but still so far realistically.

This record is 30 seconds better than the previous record (his own) from 2018.

He'd still need to shave 30 seconds off 2+ more times to beat it. I don't know if he has enough left in him to pull out a couple more big jumps like that. He's already 37 (which is wild enough that he's pulling this off in his late 30s). How far into his 40s is he going to be able to realistically attempt 2 hrs? No idea lol the man already seems like an alien at this point, so I won't be surprised if he pulls it off!

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Yeah, but with many people pushing really hard for that 3, 4, 5 hour mark.

I just saw a reel on Instagram that had a guy get on a treadmill going the record pace (and it took a while to find a treadmill that went that fast) and he wanted to see how long he could hold the pace - he lasted like 4 minutes and he was a legit runner. Amazing

Generally you’re picking a time faster than you’ve previously done and that you think is at the edge of your reach, so it’s probably close.

Distance running is hugely mental as well, so the targeting is really about trying to pace optimally in my experience. It’s less about “kicking at the end” and more about “I need to run x minute miles”, so the end time is planned

I could keep up for...400m and then fall off big time, he does that for...another 41600m. I cannot even imagine what it must feel like to run that fast for that long.

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I like how explicit the axis labels are. You don't have to know what a histogram is to interpret this chart.

Me poorly explaining histograms: "ok, so you have a continuous variable that you break up into equal bin widths..."

Who puts time on a graph this way?

It also doesn't mean that much. A lot of disciplines are reigned by certain genetics.

For a marathon it seems to be good to be from east Africa and be short. For sprinting: same region and tall.

The best sprinters are from west African descent not east Africa

I’ll never forget watching my first marathon in Boston. When the lead pack ran by I was simply astounded at the pace and speed. They were running faster than I could I sprint for 100M.

He did go below 2 hours (1:59:40) in 2019, but in a special event which was not compliant with IAAF regulations for world record (running behind a car and with multiple pacemakers that were starting during the run).

Endurance running its less wild than it could be for a power event—I’d love to see him beat the 2h!

Kipchoge was averaging nearly 4 and a half minute miles. I mean dude…

That’s about right. 4 minute miles are a high bar of running. Not many can do it. What Eliud is doing is almost inconceivable

Yeah the technology right now is so good for people to really hit their marks. More data on a persons watch than pros had a decade ago

Ironically, most top sprinters are either North American or Caribbean black people. I rarely see someone from West Africa winning. You’d think way more folks from West Africa would be winning if it was mostly genetics

You trace the lineage of those Caribbean and American sprinters and it all goes back to west Africa. The Americans and Caribbeans win because they have access to the best training facilities and a culture that puts an emphasis on sprinting.

That’s fascinating. Didn’t know this. Being a 4-hr pacer seems easy enough, but a 3-hr pacer should be competing in the main race. If you can confidently pace yourself for a 3 hour marathon, you definitely can run it at 2:30-2:40 mark

He had pacers who would rotate. It’s slightly easier to run faster if you know how much more effort to given, assuming you can perform that to begin with

I think to better visualize it yet, it is important to add a cutoff time to include just the exceptional recreational runners and professional/semi-pro to see how substantially faster Kipchoge is compared to the field.

A cutoff around 2:45 would be sufficient. There are only THREE times an athlete has ran under 2:02 in marathon history on record eligible courses, two of which are Kipchoge.

There have been FIVE sub 2:02 races ran at the marathon distance including non-eligible courses, FOUR of which are Kipchoge.

He is a phenomenal athlete and I can't wait to see him crush the only.pic field for the third time in 2024.

2.6 seconds a mile is A LOT during this distance, even during a half and arguably a 10k, specifically at this level of competition. Quantitatively it is small, but in the sense of athletics that's a huge jump.

I believe he's been vocal about retiring from true competition after the 2024 olympics with a possible last attempt for a record Berlin 2025. I forget when this was, but I recall it's been discussed.

Don't be racist and have the data wrong, it's twice as irritating

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I’m not sure about this. 2:30 is 20% faster than 3:00. That’s a HUGE difference over 26 miles.

>2.6 seconds a mile is A LOT during this distance

Oh for sure, that's why I added the "but still so far realistically"

It's just that even for someone at his level it must still feel so miniscule to see those numbers. To think "Oh, all I need to do is shave off 2.6 seconds per mile". He knows how hard it is, but when the number is that small you probably can't help but feel it's right there.

And yeah, that sounds about right. It's amazing he's able to compete this aggressively at his age already, so yeah one final olympics at age 40 and maybe one more kick at Berlin after that? Seems like a good line to draw for him.

Anyway, I absolutely hope he pulls it off. Who knows when we'll see someone else with a realistic chance! There are a bunch of Ethiopians and Kenyans who've posted sub 2:04s over the last few years, so we'll see! Legese is probably the youngest of them at 28, so maybe he'll excel into his 30s as well and have a good chance at it over the next decade!

Speaking of running faster, try this. Count backwards while doing push-ups or other strength exercises. ITS EASIER!

It's just an inverse of what we expect but usable to highlight a single data point.

Making him closer to 0,0 as a data point would make it difficult to highlight him being above the rest for the average statistics reader(farthest object to the right is stronger). So you just flip the graph along the y axis with a shift left approach and you end up with what we see.

This is only useful when doing fast means less time.

Africans, like Caribbeans, spend a lot of their training in the US and in Europe. So at the very least, I’d expect them to perform similarly to Caribbean athletes.

That’s said, we are talking about a small number of athletes. The reasons why a few emerge above the pack can be totally unrelated to genetics while on average it plays a bigger role, if that makes any sense

Yeah but he only needs to keep that pace for ~2 hours so it’s easy.

No other animal can do this (run almost indefinitely). Our distant ancestors simply ran faster animals into the ground, literally. Keep going until that gazelle got so tired it collapsed.

On a hot day a human can even outrun a horse in a marathon.

The point they are making is that if you are in charge of pacing people to a 3:00 marathon you need to be able to run that time fairly comfortably. If that time represents your max effort then there is a good chance you miss the mark.

The marathon that is hiring you doesn't want something like that to happen so they get someone who is capable of running a 2:40 so that 3:00 is a straightforward and easy effort for them that they are guaranteed to hit.

If it makes you feel better, when I tried to qualify for Boston I set my goal at 3:01:00.

The time I needed to qualify was 3:05, and I wanted to make sure I beat it by a couple minutes to make sure I got in. I also knew my fitness level was likely right around this time, so I wanted to be safe and not go out too fast.

If I was in good enough shape to run 3:01, then this pacing would work perfect, if I paced for 3:00, then my final time would likely be 3:03 which would have cut it too close for my liking.

"It's not a sprint it's a Marathon" - actually is just a long sprint now I guess

Keep in mind that running on a treadmill is easier because you don't have to face the wind, etc. Running 2:50 per km for 4min is very very hard.

Ok that makes sense. Thanks!

Pretty sure the pacers don’t need to run the whole thing at that pace. Just do part of it and then tag in the next pacer to take their place for the next portion. A team of like 4 pacers could do it relay style

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Thanks for not calling me a racist.

Different skill, but musicians often group from certain areas. Could just be the local(city) leven culture that encourages certain skills

Another way to visualize how insane this is is to imagine a relay of 105 random runners from this race each running only an 1/4 of a mile. There is every reason to believe he would win.

I know for myself I'm always thinking "Ehhhhh 2 seconds a mile for this half is all I need to do for my goal time? That's easy!" Even though I know it's not haha I agree, it can be easy to get that idea into your head and I doubt professionals are immune to it.

I have high hopes that Tola will become a star marathoner, although I am doubtful we will see a marathoner of Kipchoge's caliber for a while. Jakob Ingebritsen, a phenomenal 1500m and 5k runner has expressed interest in future marathoning, but I imagine he has a lot still to achieve on the track before making the move.

Am I the only one you noticed the peeks at 5 hours, 4 hours and 3 hours? While I know many runners will target a number of hours and train for a specific time, far to many make it at the last minute and I suspect many lie about their final times.

Ah got it. This makes more sense then.

Yeah, usually people dump on charts in this sub, but this is a very well-done visualization. Clearly communicates the point.

Never did a marathon, but I did a few big half-marathon. I don't think I ever saw a pacer below 1h40 (not that it can't exist, but it seems to not be the norm).

I run 5-10 miles per week, throughout the year. My sprint is nowhere close to 4:37/mile.

Most people won't be able to sprint at half that speed for even 1 mile.

Kipchoge is truly superhuman.

Most people won't be able to run a 100m dash at that time

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It's not true though.

> Ironically, most top sprinters are either North American or Caribbean black people. I rarely see someone from West Africa winning. You’d think way more folks from West Africa would be winning if it was mostly genetics

It's genetics AND the money to sponsor and promote athletes. The west has the money, and many of those top sprinters in those regions clearly trace their lineage to West Africa.

Dressage riding seems to favour western european genetics.

I argue that's one of the more expensive disciplines.

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I'm not the most fit cyclist nor do I have the best bike, but I'm extremely happy if I average 13 mph over 26 miles. The fact that Kipchoge ran this pace is absolutely insane.

They usually do the entire race. They are just good, dedicated runners.

Kipchoge also has a team of pacermakers that pretty much only run to support him even though they probably could finish in the top 20 by themselves.

Running 2:50 per km for any amount of time is very hard! For me, at least, and I don't completely suck at running.

Back when I was in peak shape running 8 miles a day for cross country back in high school I maybe ran a 5 flat once (the first leg of my best ever 5k). 5:08 was my fastest official mile time. The state I lived in would have a small number of kids able to run a mile under that 4:37 (my brother being one of them at a 4:36 years and years ago) and almost none that could run that fast for 2 miles (i think i saw it 1 time when a kid smashed the 2 mile state record). I'm in way worse shape now and can only begin to imagine how incredible of shape he's in.

I’m curious about the spike around 3 hours. Is that caused by many people willing to beat the 3 hours wall and then just stopping there?

I think typically they will have multiple people pace over the course of a marathon, especially for faster times. Can anyone confirm

What I find even more interesting is the the clustering of times around every whole and half hour. I'm guessing people train and push for those times in particular.

That turns out to be a pretty good visualization of external motivation affecting a standard distribution.

People in this thread "sprint" at a surprisingly slow speed

A lot of people couldn’t even keep this pace on a bicycle for two hours straight. Insane.

Right. I know what they are saying but I think that is wrong.

I’ve never run a marathon, but I’ve cycled for years. And at least for me, a 2-3% increase in speed on a long ride is the difference between a comfortable ride and possibly needing to stop and catch my breath.

I’m sure there are some 3:00 pace setters who can do 2:40 or 2:30 but it’s not as easy as it sounds.

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Hey I’m in there somewhere

Jim: So what's your strategy for this race?

Eliud Kipchoge: Well I'm gonna start fast.

Jim: Mm-hmm.

Eliud Kipchoge: Then I'm gonna run fast in the middle.

Jim: What?

Eliud Kipchoge: Then I'm gonna end fast.

Jim: Why won't more people do that?

Eliud Kipchoge: Cause they're just stupid.

People keep forgetting this one little fact!

Never heard of that. Very cool

Kipchoge had a trained nutrition bottle-passer, a human interest story in the NYTimes said. Eliud drinks every two miles. A German friend is there and knows how to pass him a bottle without slowing down. The helper bikes the next two miles and passes again. They have been working together for five years.

Alternatively an elite runner can leave a distinctly marked bottle at any mile table. But perhaps lose a few seconds fetching it.

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I guess I might be confused about what you're saying then. Are you saying that people who pace for 3:00 marathon times only have a PR around (3:00 * 0.97) 2:54?

I think depending on the day / weather / how training went, a single person can expect a 10 minute swing in their Marathon time. This is why you would want some one capable of at least 2:45 to give yourself that margin of error.

I have no idea what marathon directors actually do, this is just my guess.

I still think it's interesting that in a race to finish as fast as possible, so much of our speed is determined by mentality rather than just physical ability.

The human mentality of pushing for a target is a hell of a thing.

Fascinating spike of people aiming for 3:00. That in itself is an exceptional time. And others whose goal and training was clearly 3:30 or 4:00.

Data is awesome.

Great work on the graph. Well done

And, did you qualify?

No, Mikey, no!!!!! This is so not right!!!!!

I only ran a half Marathon once but i didn't train went out drinking the day before and am a smoker. I only ran because a friend got sick and asked me to run in her stead. I planned to stop after 5 or 10k but there was this guy with this timeflag in front if me so i just followed.

Long Story short: when my body started to tell me that He really wasn't in the mood anymore i was a Kilometer away from the finish line, so i finished...and spend the next month cursing my decision because everything hurt.

Anyway, i got offtrack because i misunderstood your debate: those time people are people which comfortably can run these times. So for sure a 3hr timesetter can run far below 3hrs

I hate the it’s all genetics argument so much. It completely invalidates all the training involved to do this. “Oh he’s just genetically better, if I had his genetics I’d be setting the record marathon times”. 99.99% of people if given his genetics wouldn’t be record setting marathoners. They’d still be where they are today. Yes genetics can play a role and can be a difference between the elite of the elite but 99+% of his performance is from his training.

Yeah I was like the exact same. My best mile was like 5:08 and I could keep under 6 for a 5k but that was like only once. I can’t imagine holding this pace at all.

First few comments, no one but you is noting that. Everyone is just responding to the overall incredibleness of the feat

Nope. Pacers have to race from the start, hence why the pacers for lead men and women often drop out between the halfway mark and 20 miles, depending on their fitness and endurance level. Pacers for the masses are different, those are expected to run the whole thing and are generally runners who can comfortably cover the distance in a faster time than what their pacing.

The one exception to this was Kipchoge's 1:59 marathon, where pacers rotated in an out, and that's one of the several reasons why it isn't an official world record.

The thing that interests me the most is how much of a motivator the hour mark is as a target.

And funnily enough, with better pacing experience how much quicker fun runners could go than "sub 4", "sub 3" etc if there was finer understanding of how quick they're capable of going. You see it start to stabilise around 2.45 because anyone under that is doing very specific training and usually has a great amount of experience pacing.

Why did you choose to reverse the time scale on the x axis?

I was never able to sprint very fastso my mile time stopped there, but I was able to run my top pace for a pretty good distance. I managed a 16:49 5k (once in perfect conditions at my favorite course also a 5:25 pace), but beside that generally mantained ~17:20. So my typical best all out run for over 3 miles was still a minuts slower than him.

First, how old are you, and have you ever actually measured how fast you can sprint? At the pique of my physical capabilities in high school, I was enrolled in a speed training program to improve my abilities as a soccer player and I remember running 17mph was very difficult. 13.1mph for any prolonged time for an ordinary person is impressive.

I did. Ran 3:00:30 to qualify, then 3:09 in Boston on a very warm year.

The marathon I'm running next weekend requires that pacers demonstrate that they have run a marathon in a time at least 15 minutes faster than their pace time.

Looks more like my stock portfolio

The exception is cold climates. Get a sled dog in the cold and they can run that fast while pulling weight. They can even run hundred or more miles at a slightly lower pace. In normal weather this is not possible for most animals because they can’t cool off though.

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>Our distant ancestors simply ran faster animals into the ground, literally. Keep going until that gazelle got so tired it collapsed.

Yeah this isn't actually true.

Exhaustion hunting is something humans can do, but it's not historical to say it's what our ancestors did. It's what some people in some places did.

Contrasted to like, throwing spears at things until they die, or laying traps, or using throwing clubs.

>On a hot day a human can even outrun a horse in a marathon

This is also pretty rare.

I'm impressed by every mark that finished.... I say from my couch

3 hours is Boston Qualifying time for men age 18-34 and generally a very good benchmark so a popular target time.

A pro marathon runner asks an enthusiast who just completed a 4hr 30 minute marathon: "how do you run for so long?"

It’s the Boston Qualifying time for men age 18-34 and a very good benchmark. It will also be a massive pace group you can run in. Aiming for 2:57 you might be running on your own the whole time and if your only goal is BQ then may as well run for 3:00. On the other side, those with fitness and training that “should” put them on for a 3:03 pace will dig ultra deep mentally and physically to stay with the 3:00 pace group.

The normal distribution of times that should exist centred on 3:00 collapses onto the marker.

Conversely there are probably runners whose fitness and training might put them on a 3:05ish time but running in a pace group brings them a mental boost to get them down to 3:00 that they couldn’t run on their own.

Unexpected r/formula1

I would struggle to do even one mile at this pace, that’s a little over 13mph or about 21kmh. I think my fastest mile is about 7 minutes and I was exhausted after 1 😅

Long distance runners are freaks

I ran an 11:40 2mi for Varsity Soccer and felt like I was hauling ass. Also thought my lungs would explode by the end of it

Glad to hear that. Those are excellent times under any conditions, well done!

That's a decent time for a guys 2 mile. Varsity track would typically run low 11s (i only ever ran below 11 twice, once at a big meet and once for part of a 5k). You'd need to consistently run below an 11 to have a shot at winning the 2 mile in track and if you run sub 10 then you're pretty much guaranteed the win. I cone from a midwest state though, so there's a lot less competition than somewhere like texas where the tine I listed are probably wrong. 11:40 is a solid time for soccer though since you were probably running in your cleats instead of spikes.

I get what you're saying, but surely that shows they're capable of the 3 hours and should factor into it.

Like if I do the local parkrun I might dip under 16 mins on a good day. Low 15 when it's a high quality 5k that's basically not a solo run. But I'm always aware that those fast races are where the true pace will show.

As other posters have replied. I think it is train g strategy to beat the quarter hour marks (and of course many are going to try and best the 3/4/5/6 hour marks.

I cannot sprint 100m as fast as these people string together 26.2 miles...

He's moving fast enough and the margins are so thin that there's actually a drafting effect as well

Thx for the metric measurements!

That’s also what I thought… at like 10 after seeing a marathon for the 2nd time or something!

Yea 2:45 sounds reasonable for a comfortable 3:00. A 10 minute swing sounds reasonable. But people were talking 20-30 min which seems excessive.

How can your number be interpreted? Do you say that out if 100000 newborns, if all trained minimally better a 90+% would beat his marathon times?

Do you think height isn't important in basketball? Or do you think it is the result of good Training?

I’ve done a couple of marathons and for the 3hr pacers they switch off at the midpoint. For slower finishing times usually a person can hold that pace for the whole race

Berlin is a fast course with good crowd support. It’s a great course for someone around the 3hr mark to accomplish their goal of sub 3 for Boston. So it probably attracts more people in that time group

This quite far from being Gaussin shaped

I’m myself a 2h57’ marathoner, but still the spike at 3 hours surprises me. Makes me wonder if 3h is just a mental marker then and if BQ time was, let’s say, 2h50’, people would get fitter

They were also all breed in the states to be peak physically. They literally took the two biggest, fastest, most well producing slaves and made them have babies. Ducked up but made generic freaks.

I came here to say this.

Long distance running is a skill, just like every single thing humans learn to do. Spend hours/years doing something, throw in some very specific training conditions, and a specific intention and you get what Kipchoge is doing now.

Talent is a myth. Skill development is the real gold and you can look at the environment/conditions for many greats to see how they got their.

Tiger Woods is a quick example. Not genetics! Started learning golf at 3 with a father who guided and directed a very regimented trading program. He was competing at 10 I believe. No wonder he became the greatest.

A great non sporting example is Eminem and his Detroit rap group D12. They all grew up rapping with each other and focusing on making it. Granted, they didn’t all reach the same level of popularity as Em, but how do you think Em got so good…genetics?

“The Talent Code” is a great book which goes deeper into this concept.

Respect the skill!

Muggsy Bouges showed us height didn’t matter in basketball. Dude was legit at 5’3”.

fuck, imagine running a marathon with a giant ass freakin sign catching the wind.

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Well, you can try! I run a half marathon at 4:05/km, but can sustain 2:50/km for 100m or so LOL