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CalmSatisfaction9425 t1_irxqlqp wrote

Reply to comment by nautilus_red in Roulette simulation: 10'000 players each betting 5'000 times (74% chance of having a negative return ) [OC] by nautilus_red

What is the output of the function random.choices() based on? In excel, the random function is based on the uniform distribution, which means if you generate enough samples you'll just replicate the uniform distribution. "Truly random" random generators technically do not exist, they have to be based on something in order to be programmed. It's important to understand how it works under the hood so you know your conclusions are accurate. It might be good enough!

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nautilus_red OP t1_irxv8pi wrote

Well in this case I do not generate a number but I chose from a predetermined list (which I defined to match the actual probabilities of roulette). random.choices() choses per default uniformely.

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CalmSatisfaction9425 t1_is0aw2u wrote

Ok. Ultimately you are generating a random number- you're generating a random pick from a predefined list. This pick needs to follow some sort of pattern, and it sounds like your code uses the uniform distribution which makes sense for an ideal roulette wheel (a fair roulette wheel). Nice!

In the future you can repeat your entire study, say n=20 more times, and add a random bias to the roulette wheel to favor ever so slightly a section of numbers located near each other. This would simulate real world conditions as there's no such thing as a perfectly ideal roulette wheel. Combine the results together to see if the effect is significant. The results might be interesting!

Great project!!

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