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devilsrotary86 t1_iry002x wrote

Without doing any real research of my own, but a 26% chance of at least breaking even feels pretty good in terms of casino odds. I would have expected it to be more tilted in favor of the house.

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nautilus_red OP t1_iry6fag wrote

I first thought exactly the same but keep in mind that 26% winning does not mean that its a quarter of the total "pool" of money that changed hands. In the simulation the sum of all winners equals 3'195'425 $ while the sum of all losers (profit for the casino) is 16'524'025 $ which is 5x larger (despite "only" 74% of total losers). This is because there are far more large losses than large gains.

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