randomando2020 t1_is0wo8w wrote on October 12, 2022 at 2:29 PM

This would be more beautiful if X axis was years and the cycle in months was indicated by wave lines between the two points.

Kind of a confusing perspective that makes it hard to glean info right now.

transformersh OP t1_is49x1c wrote on October 13, 2022 at 4:50 AM

thanks. Are you thinking about this view: https://skloff.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/us-bull-markets-bear-markets-1903-2016.jpg?

randomando2020 t1_is4a5b8 wrote on October 13, 2022 at 4:53 AM

Yes that’s pretty decent. Current one displayed, while I see where you were going with it, requires too much effort on the user side to get acquainted with and interpret it.

Coming from experience, we have the burden of knowledge when making this stuff so we’re overly familiar with what we’re doing and how we might extract conclusions from it.

HereItsDani t1_is0a6t6 wrote on October 12, 2022 at 11:18 AM

I mean, how can we scaled this to make it significative? Maybe log10?

A bear market of down 50% is not the same of a bull market of 50%, so I feel the Y axis could be fixed a bit

[deleted] t1_is0cg7p wrote on October 12, 2022 at 11:42 AM

The data is linear in y, further complication is not necessary

itswill95 t1_is25v4n wrote on October 12, 2022 at 7:26 PM

is it linear though? it would take a 100% gain to recover from a 50% loss. If market was the same price today as it was in 1926 you'd expect to see higher deviations from 0 above the x axis

transformersh OP t1_irzqtbu wrote on October 12, 2022 at 6:48 AM

Developed via Power BI; Source data: https://mahopacmoney.com/2020/04/15/whats-the-difference-between-a-pullback-a-correction-and-a-bear-market/

More of my other visualizations can be found at this post.

[OC] Bull and Bear markets: Duration & Return - since 1926 as per JP Morgan

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