Because of its volatile price, Bitcoin's return depends heavily on the specific time and price you paid for it. This chart shows how that return compares to putting the equivalent amount in a S&P 500 fund (with dividends re-invested) like SPY or VOO.

As the chart shows, any bitcoin purchased for more than $13.5k is likely trailing the market in terms of total returns (these are shown in red).

Even below that, down to about $10k depending on purchase date, likely trailed the market on a risk-adjusted basis (orange points) - even if it provided greater total returns. That is, you would've made more money with less volatility by buying a leveraged S&P fund.

Those time points in green, generally with purchase prices under $10k, would've beat the market risk-adjusted. Risk is calculated using the Sharpe ratio and assuming a 2% safe annualized rate of return. Idiosyncratic risk, like lost keys or your exchange blowing up isn't part of this model.

The chart shows that bitcoin has now fallen so far that basically any purchase at the 2017, 2019 or post-covid peaks is now trailing market returns. Pretty much the entire covid run-up is now trailing market returns, at least on a risk-adjusted basis.

[deleted]