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fifaBeastFC t1_iyonp53 wrote

I have a question; for example the Netherlands. If I read this correctly the Netherlands will reach the quarter finals in 59% and the semi finals in 35%. That means that there is a 63% chance the Netherlands wins the quarter finals when reached. But If I also do the same calculation for Argentina (66% quarter and 40% semi) they also win the quarter finals 60% of the times when reached.

How is it possible that Both the Netherlands AND Argentina wins the quarter final more than 50% of the time. When reached.

Also; if you sum up the possibilities of the 4 countries (the Netherlands, Argentina, USA and Australia) to reach the semi finals I get 107%. Shouldn't this be 100% since its only possible that one country out of these four reach the semi finals

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Languid_lizard t1_iyopaak wrote

The first point could potentially be explained by them having a higher % chance if they face USA or Australia in the second round. But yea the numbers don’t add up for the region so something seems a little off about the simulation.

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mfb- t1_iyq4uwy wrote

> How is it possible that Both the Netherlands AND Argentina wins the quarter final more than 50% of the time. When reached.

If the Netherlands and Argentina have e.g. 50%/50% against each other but more than 50% chance against the other team (US/Australia) then you get more than 50% (conditional) chance to advance for both teams.

The 107% sum is odd, indeed.

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hiphippo65 t1_iyorx5u wrote

The way it’s presented (x team reaches a certain level in xx% of simulations) you have a solid point. They necessarily have to add up to 100%. Even in factoring in rounding, it shouldn’t be off by 7%.

My guess is that it’s not in fact % of simulations, but instead % chance of reaching that level. Small difference in interpretation, doesn’t matter on the first round, but changes in the deeper rounds due to conditional probabilities. For example given Australia beats Argentina, their odds of reaching the semis is increased much more than say the USA beating the Netherlands.

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