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VogJam t1_iyqr5hz wrote

Reply to comment by sageandbunyon in [OC] Results of 50,000 World Cup Knockout Simulations by mathsTeacher82

It’s the knock on effect from R16.

It predicts that Poland are 10% more likely to beat France than Senegal to beat England. Obviously if France are eliminated by Poland, they can’t reach the final, so France’s predictions are carrying that 10% disadvantage through to the other rounds. It’s not predicting that England will beat France, just that France are more likely to slip up in the R16.

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