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Eric1969 t1_izt83c8 wrote

Reply to comment by Mooks79 in Football betting experiment: what if I consistently bet against the odds, on the least likely match outcome? This is the English Premier League. What happened in 2019/20? (sorry for the third similar post, I test different competitions incrementally after the jaw-dropping World Cups' results) [OC] by ikashnitsky

I agree. Also, the random numbers produced by a computer are “pseudo-random”.

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Mooks79 t1_izt8d0z wrote

They should be random enough, albeit improperly generated random numbers could be a cause. My money is on them setting up the simulation incorrectly, though. When I say incorrectly, I mean it could be that they haven’t set the simulation up quite as they think they have.

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Mooks79 t1_j1dtis7 wrote

Finally got round to knocking up a simulation, can confirm that the two methods (randomly choosing whether to bet H or T, or using the lagged counts) both give the same (0.5) win rate, as expected. Indeed, any strategy (e.g. always choosing H or T) will yield the same win rate for a truly random coin. I suspect there was a slight glitch in your friend’s simulation. Happy to share (R) code and plot(s) if you want.

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