Comments
[deleted] t1_j2t8heg wrote
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[deleted] t1_j2ta44r wrote
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itsniickgeo t1_j2tczqo wrote
I would figure it would be higher in November and December with all of the Christmas gifts being bought
GameDoesntStop t1_j2tfwm9 wrote
Pretty interesting! I checked the data for Canada too, and found a similar pattern:
| Month | Average annualized inflation (1950 - 2022) |
|---|---|
| Jan | 4.3% |
| Feb | 5.1% |
| Mar | 4.6% |
| Apr | 4.2% |
| May | 4.8% |
| Jun | 4.4% |
| Jul | 4.9% |
| Aug | 3.2% |
| Sep | 2.2% |
| Oct | 3.6% |
| Nov | 2.7% |
| Dec | 0.4% |
NCITUP t1_j2tguq2 wrote
Yeah. I would have added October too.
Sparta89 OP t1_j2tm77q wrote
Thanks, I wonder if the pattern holds true for the EU too.
ImagineLosingTheGame t1_j2tv7gc wrote
Inflation has been lower in the past few months when looking at both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted figures, so arguably there is a good chance inflation already peaked.
Sparta89 OP t1_j2tw74u wrote
This data demonstrates than inflation is typically lower in the second half of the year, especially in November and December. So it would appear this year the inflation data is simply following the historical trend. Only if inflation doesn't rise in the January to March data can you say that inflation has peaked and isn't following the trend.
redditseddit4u t1_j2ty88m wrote
Inflation is calculated based on the prices people pay for goods/services. I’d suspect inflation is lower in Nov/Dec because retail usually offers sales/discounts in those months (people buy more but it’s perhaps at a slightly lower price)
darthy_parker t1_j2u3jxe wrote
I would guess it’s partly due to the many “sales” held from Thanksgiving to post-Christmas inventory clearance, and the end-of-year push at auto dealers to get car sales.
sxjthefirst t1_j2ucaf2 wrote
And compare with countries like Japan or India where Xmas is not the main holiday season
ImagineLosingTheGame t1_j2un1u3 wrote
Yes, but I was saying that even the seasonally adjusted figures, which adjust for the historical monthly trend, are lower.
Sparta89 OP t1_j2t4vb7 wrote
Data source: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
Tool: Microsoft Excel
I did the math to calculate the average monthly inflation in the USA at an annualized rate since 1950.
History shows that inflation is typically low in November and December. While it is highest in February, March, and June.
This provides a compelling reason why inflation has not yet peaked. The fall in inflation that the USA is seeing now may just be the typical seasonal pattern before inflation surges again over the next few months.