[OC] Final Animated NFL Ratings for the 2022 SeasonSubmitted by Bischrob t3_107ytpl in dataisbeautiful
tensigh t1_j3q96xj wrote
Reply to comment by Poincare_Confection in [OC] Final Animated NFL Ratings for the 2022 Season by Bischrob
How do you explain the Niners? Highest rated defense and the offense slowly crept up, they’ve won 10 straight with a third string QB.
Krogsly t1_j3qqrxs wrote
SF was 4-3 before acquiring arguably the best offensive player in the NFL, then lost to KC before their 10 straight. Their 3rd string qb might not be the biggest reason they're winning. Replacing Trey Lance and acquiring McCaffrey are most likely the reasons their offense got better and had more impact on winning.
CodyNorthrup t1_j3rgbbk wrote
Lance has almost no impact on the rating. He started week 1 and was hurt early in the 1st quarter in week 2
tensigh t1_j3r1htm wrote
True, they shifted their offense once they acquired McCaffrey. But their defense has always surpassed their offense this year so in their case you could say their defense had a bigger impact than their offense. At least, looking at this graph that could be a conclusion. Watching the games it's clear their offense has had a great psychological edge, but that isn't reflected in the numbers in this graph since the defense rating is consistently higher than the offense.
Yayareasports t1_j3v2hrn wrote
*3-3 but otherwise generally yeah. Also Trent Williams got healthy around then
Krogsly t1_j3vr4co wrote
Trent Williams was huge, agreed.
hallese t1_j3qua2s wrote
In other words, as their offense improved, they won more games. I feel like OP already explained that.
tensigh t1_j3r0xii wrote
The OP said that offense had more impact than defense, but with the Niners their defense always surpassed their offense.
You could call it an anomoly but in their case defense had a "bigger impact" on their success.
hallese t1_j3r2jfd wrote
Yet the ten game win streak correlates with their offensive improvements, right? This has been a trend for decades. Hell, I wrote about this in grad school and started my professional career off that project. The - at the time - ten highest scoring teams in NFL history had all finished .750 or better, but only one of them had won the Super Bowl up to that point. In the playoffs, and I suspect this is due to good defenses appearing to be more consistent than good offenses, defense became a better indicator of success. For instance, in 2010 the top two defenses were Pittsburgh and Green Bay, who played each other in the Super Bowl that year. Top two offenses? San Diego and New England who combined for zero playoff wins that year.
Antani101 t1_j3r4gog wrote
They had a good defense but without a good offense they weren't winning 10 straight
tensigh t1_j3ri1b9 wrote
I agree totally. My assertion was that the Niners were an anomoly because their defense consistently outperformed their offense. The statement was "offense had a bigger impact", using the Chiefs as an example. The Niners, however, seem to refute that, or at least, are an exception.
Antani101 t1_j3rxs2d wrote
No they don't.
Even with a consistently good defense they weren't going anywhere.
Red_n_Gold_Tears t1_j3v620p wrote
Offense and defense both improved week after week, primarily after the Chiefs game and after our bye week which I believe was 2 weeks later.
Garoppolo was still recovering from his surgery and had to regain that on-field synergy after Lance went down. Kittle came back I think week 3, and also had still been recovering. Niners also had quite a few defensive injuries that finally started coming back gradually, also losing our CB1 for the year, and our FS (Jimmy Ward) was playing nickel ever since. Greenlaw was out quite a few games early on as well and eventually came back. We had 2 DL out between Armstead and Kinlaw out for a good while too.
Niners just have so many good players on both sides of the ball... And they have depth that just has this step-up and next-man-up mentality. Everyone on that team really holds each other up. I mean look at when Garoppolo went down and they all rallied behind Purdy... So many great motivators and you can really see and feel they all excited to play for and with one another. This group is really somethin special.
And I really dont think we have a single bad apple on the team... And the ones they did have they weeded out. They understand this is a "team" and a team game. And probably the only 2 that come to mind is possibly Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson Jr causing a lil drama... Deebo wanted a paycheck, and JWJ didnt want to continue being a RB3 since they picked up CMC and Mitchell was coming off IR. Maybe even McKinnon having a bad attitude when asked if he thought the Niners would bring him back replying with "Fuck naw".
When was the last you seen a current Niner act like Diggs complaining about not gettin the ball and requesting a trade cause your QB isnt targeting you enough to your expectations. Or Brady/Rodgers basically throwing temper tantrums on the field or on the sideline breaking tablets. Or Antonio Browns stripping off his pads and quitting mid game.
That's the ShanaLynch culture theyve built from the ground up since theyve arrived in 2017.
Poincare_Confection t1_j3qqsac wrote
The 49ers have one of the best offenses on this chart. Looks like 5th best. They only support my belief.
tensigh t1_j3r14ub wrote
Except that their defense has surpassed their offense, even as offense improved. So the defense had a larger impact than their offense, yes?
Poincare_Confection t1_j3r341h wrote
I can be more precise: My suspicion is that offensive rating would correlate better with win rate than defensive rating would correlate with win rate.
tensigh t1_j3rigdu wrote
I'm a Niner fan so I've been watching them all year. Clearly their offense has improved and psychologically it's lifted the team up. Purdy's first game as a starter resulted in 35 points - a HUGE offensive impact. But the Niners' and Chiefs data in this chart seem to point in opposite directions.
MasterMacMan t1_j41uzvk wrote
Brock Purdy was playing at an Pro Bowl level in those games though.
tensigh t1_j41xucu wrote
No doubt, I'm a Niner fan and have been crying tears of joy for this.
I was trying to refute the original statement that offense had more impact than defense. This is often true but looking just at this chart, the Niners seemed to paint a different conclusion.
And yeah, Purdy's been awesome, I want him to be the permanent starter. He's proven himself whereas Lance hasn't, and Jimmy is on his way out.
Unlucky_Sherbert_468 t1_j3uha56 wrote
Patriots probably just have a coach who doesn't know how to win.
Source: Me, a Bills fan
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