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dynosaur7 OP t1_j3xxqhq wrote

There’s a lot of speculation about what December’s inflation is going to be, leading up to the BLS’s announcement on Thursday. I used market data from Kalshi, a regulated prediction market, to chart and annotate how the forecast has changed over time.
Data: kalshi.com/events/CPI-22DEC

Tools: React, VisX
Link to interactive content: kalshi.com/forecasts/inflation
Disclaimer: I am employed by Kalshi, but all the data I used to create this visualization is publicly accessible on the website.

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Born_Room7048 t1_j3xyn6x wrote

Why is headline always lower than core over the last few months?

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Also where is this from?

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Name_Found t1_j3y1s80 wrote

Headline has big emphasis on energy which has fallen heavily due to overestimation of demand I believe so more supply less demand lowered prices so headline went down. However core doesn’t include energy and included more lagging behind items such as food which will benefit from lower diesel prices but haven’t reflected fully yet.

I’m pretty stupid so I probably missed something important but that’s about the general idea.

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liortulip t1_j3xzzjf wrote

This is really cool! It's interesting that you can attribute those spikes to specific events.

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pantaloonsofJUSTICE t1_j3y6kmz wrote

Is this month over month % increase? It can’t be annual (which is sort of the default), so what is it?

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dynosaur7 OP t1_j3y8hen wrote

That's right, it's month % increase. The current forecast for year-over-year is 6.4% headline

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