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jointheredditarmy t1_j4ak3ls wrote

Is this bureau reported balances or carried balances? Keep in mind bureau reported balances are very misleading because it includes non-revolving transaction balances as well…

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GeorgeDaGreat123 t1_j4d05y3 wrote

The data source (St. Louis Fed) states "Credit Card Balances". Aren't all credit cards revolving by definition?

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jointheredditarmy t1_j4dahmi wrote

sorry, i meant "carried" balances. if you ask a credit bureau, "how much is there in outstanding credit card debt" they will report back the total balances from all the metro 2 file they've received from the various issuers. The problem is that the metro 2 reporting structure doesn't consider whether the consumer is making minimum payments or paying off the balances in full, its just "current outstanding balance". Many major banks report on a weekly basis now, so even consumers who fully pay off their cards will show a "balance" on the metro 2 file. Someone who spends and pays off their $50k balance every month and someone who makes a $700 payment on their $50k balance that they've been carrying for 3 years will show the same "current outstanding balance"

Basically, between current and delinquencies there's another "hidden" step, where carried balances as a % of overall balances increases, I don't think there's a good accounting of this potential signal anywhere.

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