Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

ASalvail t1_j3pvlls wrote

You don't have enough data to use AI, you're likely just going to overfit the series. In fact, time series are usually fairly short which led to the whole forecasting community to erroneously think ML could never be used for forecasting (see the M4 competition). Statistical is the way to go in your case.

If you absolutely want ML, use a simple random forest library.

3

TheLoneKid t1_j3q01a4 wrote

"Statistical is the way to go in your case." What do you mean here?

2

ASalvail t1_j3r5kxy wrote

A statistical model. I'm personally partial to using the ETS model (error, trend, seasonality), but a SARIMAX is also another good one. The 'issue' with a stats model will be that you need to do some hand tuning and thus need to understand how the model works (and ETS is a fairly simple one to comprehend).

2