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FellowConspirator t1_ja8ayep wrote

Reply to comment by PM_ur_Rump in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local

Here's a case where there might be a change in the odds. Usually, after a crash, there's a period of increased vigilance by ground crews to be on the look out for maintenance issues and speeding up checks of various systems. It's almost certainly safer to fly in the weeks following a high-profile crash.

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PM_ur_Rump t1_ja8c0jd wrote

Again, this discussion was very much about simple odds, not the complex odds of all the multiple factors. Dude even ironically used the words "gambler's fallacy" to describe what he thought I was doing by saying that one outcome does not effect the next.

In the real world, yes, there are connections between complex events like plane crashes, and the "odds" aren't static like dice.

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