Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

rohlinxeg t1_ja8t6qa wrote

Reply to comment by boytoy421 in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local

>Probability only looks forward

I like this phrase. I need to try and remember it.

8

Canadian47 t1_ja96qts wrote

Another way of saying this is that "dice don't have a memory"

7

hero_in_time t1_ja9luer wrote

It's not always true, events can be dependent

2

boytoy421 t1_jaa3nk4 wrote

Sometimes, poker is a good example, assuming you're playing with a 52 card deck and there's 5 people playing and you're 4 flushing and waiting for the river to hit. You'd think that since you're 4 flushing your odds of hitting the flush are 1 in 4 since the river card can be 1 of 4 suits.

But it's actually slightly less because if you're 4 flushing then that means a disproportionate number of your suit were already played.

It doesn't throw it off MUCH (so if you're 4 flushing you should probably chase it, especially if you're pocket suited) but it is LESS than the 1 in 4

1

hero_in_time t1_jaa6q46 wrote

That's one example. It makes quite a difference tho, 6%. Also, whether you should call or not would depend on the bet size and the pot size. Getting slightly over 4 to 1 would be break even, not considering implied odds.

1