Submitted by Reason-Local t3_11de5ag in explainlikeimfive
generous_cat_wyvern t1_ja9n5ab wrote
Reply to comment by PM_ur_Rump in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local
Right, the OP was talking simple odds, but the thread shifted to talking about plane crashes I think we exit the realm where simple odds apply. It makes sense when we're talking about dice.
PM_ur_Rump t1_ja9oemf wrote
I only brought it up because the guy I'm talking about was specifically talking about it in terms of simple odds, not arguing the fact that air travel is a very complex thing.
It was very much an application of the gambler's fallacy to a real world event, one that has extremely hard to quantify odds with countless variables to begin with.
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