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johrnjohrn t1_ja9vmsv wrote

Reply to comment by cjo20 in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local

I'm not trying to construct an actual scenario. I am constructing a hypothetical scenario that says there is no chance that the system is rigged, and there are a quintillion throws that are all identical, which is entirely possible, but highly improbable. In real life we can say, "that would never happen", but the math says you are incorrect and it 100% could happen. Now, this situation, which is mathematically possible, plays out (hypothetically). Which bet are you going to make after the one quintillionth throw? And are you a fool if you use past information to say the next throw will remain the same as the past quintillion?

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cjo20 t1_ja9x1ev wrote

Again, if it’s guaranteed to be mathematically exactly fair, then by the maths I posted earlier, claiming you have better than 1/6 chance of getting the next one right is mathematically impossible, by definition.

To be clear: you’re defining a situation whereby you are guaranteed to only have a 1/6 chance of getting the next number correct, whichever you pick, and then saying “isn’t it better to stick with the number that came up before?”. Simply, no, it’s not, because of the way you defined the system.

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Monimonika18 t1_jadhi4i wrote

Thanks for pointing out that commenter's moving goalposts.

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