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SYLOH t1_jaav09w wrote

Do note. The guy seems to be talking about simple odds using real plane crashes for some reason.
Real world statistics do not work that way.

In the real world plane crashes are not independent events.
In the real world you knowledge of the odds of plane crashes is not complete.
A plane crash will cause the ground crew and flight crew to change their behavior, shifting the odds.
A plane crash is evidence that your assumptions on the safety of a given model of plane might be incorrect.

In the magical world of simple odds, safety audits and groundings wouldn't make a lick of sense. They do in the real world.