How could Japan avoid a war with the US. Their supply of oil was cut off and they had no way to get more without a war with the US. They couldn't just stop the war in China. They were committed and the political and cultural situation made stopping impossible. The Oil embargo was a masterpiece. There were no bad outcomes from Roosevelt's perspective. It allows the US to get into the war with a motivated population. In November 1941 the US population did not want to be a part of the war. Without the US, Britian falls. Without Britian, the are no distractions for a Germany invading russia (North Africa) without those distractions and US lend lease to the USSR and Germany probably wins there.

Every leader knew the US people had to be convinced to join. That meant a brutal but impotent attack on US soil. Thus pearl harbor with all the carriers elsewhere.