AppleCare+ is not worth it unless you live in a high-theft area or if you lose or break your devices very regularly.

I'd not buy AppleCare+, because I've never broken or lost a phone (in ~10 years of phone ownership). I'd estimate I lose/break my phone every >10 years.

How does this math work? Let me break it down:

AppleCare+ for losing/destroying a phone:

If I remember the prices correctly, it's $150/year, and then you pay $150 for theft or damage. Let's say you have a $1200 iPhone Pro Max, and to be generous to Apple, let's assume you would lose or irreparably damage the device. (So, we're looking at a $1200 replacement cost.)

This means paying $150 yearly for AppleCare would save you $1050 in replacement costs. Put another way, this only makes sense if $150 <= $1050 * p, where p is the probability you break your phone. This comes out to exactly p = 1/7.

This means AppleCare+ only makes sense if you expect there's a 14% chance to lose or break your phone. Put another way, this would only make sense if you lose or break your phone once every seven years.

AppleCare+ for breaking a screen:

If I remember correctly, AppleCare+ also covers screen repairs, bringing them to $50 down from $300. By similar math, this makes sense only if you break your screen once every two years.

Note I don't have the exact numbers for your specific iPhone, so YMMV, but these numbers should be ballpark.

A note on insurance

The cost-benefit analysis of health insurance is a little different.

I buy health-insurance, even though the math loses out in my favor if we look at dollar costs.

For example, say my estimated health costs are $150, but I pay $200 in insurance monthly. Why?

Because the $400 costs more than $400, because I do not have $100K. If I needed $100K treatment, I would not be able to afford it, so I would die. (I'm in the USA.) My life costs more than $100K.

But for a phone? If I lost a $1200 phone, I can pay for that since I have $1200 in my bank account. So the $1200 only costs $1200.

Even if you can't afford $1200, you can still get a cheaper phone (~$50 for a very cheap Android or $450 for the cheapest iPhone), so you are not locked entirely out of modern life. This also factors into the cost benefit analysis: Are you willing to go down for a cheaper phone if you destroy or lose this one?

A note on repair costs

These are also using Apple's quotes for repair costs. These numbers don't factor in cheaper repair costs from third-party repair shops. These make AppleCare+ less necessary.

TLDR:

Unlike "real insurance", this is a straight cost-benefit analysis, assuming you have ~$2000 'free money' to your name.

AppleCare+ only makes sense if you lose/destroy your phones ~every 7 years, or shatter your screen once ~every 2 years. (These numbers may vary.)

So,