Yes I've seen the scene, I literally just described it. You're also just repeating what I said. I know he disguised the spikes, I know he's trying to get it to move down the path in a very obvious manner. That doesn't negate what I said, it really just supports it. The way the Predator notices the spikes, it would have had to seriously crouch down to be unaware of this trap. And it gives Dutch a cocky 'I know what you're doing' look before it walks around.

Point being, the original trap is extremely obvious and Dutch is being extremely obvious in wanting the Predator to move down that path.

Dutch doesn't move, he doesn't panic, he seems to know exactly what's gonna happen and he waits for the Predator to get into place, making sure it's underneath and then kicks off the trap. Your counter suggestion seems to be that he just got extremely lucky that he placed his counterweight exactly in the spot the Predator ended up moving to by circumventing the original trap.

I'll concede that there's an original trap he would have sprung if the Predator had kept going but I'm sorry I'm not buying this idea that Dutch is surprised and caught off guard when it doesn't fall for the original trap. The whole idea here is 'You thought you were the top hunter, but I outsmarted you!'.

You might be confusing the scene being shot to heighten tension for the audience with Dutch just getting lucky because at the end of the day, we the audience are meant to think "oh shit, what is he gonna do now?".