Dekkars t1_j99zr1d wrote on February 20, 2023 at 11:35 AM

Reply to comment by skunkbollocks in Sorry to the NHer’s who wanted to stay! by 603ify

I disagree with this video. Crashes we've seen have been due largely to excess debt.

We don't really have that in the current climate. Inventory shortages and people unwilling to give up their low interest rate mortgage will keep prices high-ish.

Prices may float down somewhat, but we won't be seeing a huge drop anytime soon.

mafiafish t1_j9airjf wrote on February 20, 2023 at 2:40 PM

While I'm skeptical of an imminent crash, US consumer debt it ratcheting up very quickly, so some of the conditions are there if folks' mortgages are up for renewal and new rates +general inflation pressures make some houses suddenly unaffordable.

Still, doesn't seem like that would be a huge swath of NH housing stock.

FatherOfTheVoid t1_j9d4kr7 wrote on February 21, 2023 at 1:17 AM

>US consumer debt it ratcheting up very quickly

Maybe this will push prices down over time. I suspect its impact will be limited due to landlords, especially corporate ones. I don't think they have many incentives to sell their property.

I'm taking out of my ass a bit, because I don't know how much of the US, or NH housing marking its controlled by mom-and-pop landlords, or corporate landlords.

My biggest hope is that high prices incentivize builders to produce more housing, assuming NIMBYs can get out of the way.

Detritus_AMCW t1_j9aczjg wrote on February 20, 2023 at 1:53 PM

I was going to say the same, indicators point to a gradual deflation that will take time. There is not going to be a sudden bottoming out of the market like in 2008-2009.