There will be a crash sooner or later, but it will be interesting to see how NH specifically is affected given there is not the same focus on new builds here.

3 new builds on my street (fairly rural) JUST finished and I feel like they were too late. Cheapest is 650K and they've sat on the market for months now. It seems like some developers are getting screwed for trying to cash in on the market.

The materials were probably so expensive when they built it they'll need a high price just to break even.

Yeah.....kind of what I was thinking.

It was RIGHT during that insane period where material pricing was through the roof (mostly wood). Then we had 2 or 3 rate hikes.

I disagree with this video. Crashes we've seen have been due largely to excess debt.

We don't really have that in the current climate. Inventory shortages and people unwilling to give up their low interest rate mortgage will keep prices high-ish.

Prices may float down somewhat, but we won't be seeing a huge drop anytime soon.

The pool of people able to afford a 650k home is small. Smaller if they need to avoid high interest rates by purchasing with cash. For a long time developers have been building larger luxury homes because they are more profitable. Seems to me like the developers are not thinking of the market.

Putting in a commuter train to Boston will fix this. Nobody will want to move up here from Mass after that.

Can’t wait

Sorry to say but there’s no ‘crash’ happening here or for the majority of the US

Honestly not sure if I’ll be able to afford a house here. Lived here my entire life and have a decent job. May have to look elsewhere…

I was going to say the same, indicators point to a gradual deflation that will take time. There is not going to be a sudden bottoming out of the market like in 2008-2009.

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these are not really "luxury homes" (both around 2500SQ Ft) but I totally agree.

One of the lots was subdivided for 2 homes (so it almost seems like the builder/developer might have been trying to maximize profits on the crappy 4Acre lot he overpaid for by cramming two houses onto it), and it definitely seems like they moved into one of them to cut their losses after 2 open houses and no "sale pending" sign.

I just haven't been curious enough to check the records.

Oh well. That’s what they get for speculative home building.

I've never seen as many condo/apartment projects before in my life here. Portsmouth has dozens of active projects or projects that just finished up. Good medium density stuff, too.

At one point I wanted to relocate to Kentucky (I'm a huge horse person and always wanted a career in the horse industry and there's obviously far more opportunities for that in Kentucky than there is here. I've even taken equine classes at UNH) but my health issues got in the way and now I'm too fucking broke to relocate anywhere. I did move closer to north Conway (I'm only 30 minutes away now) and I absolutely love it up here and now can't see myself living anywhere else, it's so peaceful and quiet

At this point I'd take some of that Soviet block housing to easy prices.

Ehhhh. We built an ADU for my parents during that time, and while we definitely paid a bunch extra for framing, and everyone fixated on that, framing is a very small portion of the cost of an actual house, so it doesn’t move the needle that much at the end of the day.

While I'm skeptical of an imminent crash, US consumer debt it ratcheting up very quickly, so some of the conditions are there if folks' mortgages are up for renewal and new rates +general inflation pressures make some houses suddenly unaffordable.

Still, doesn't seem like that would be a huge swath of NH housing stock.

There will be no “crash” without a catastrophic event. We won’t see anything like 2008-9 again.

Honestly I think it's what people want at this point, minus the lack of AC and shared toilets. Seems like the attempt to dress places up like quasi luxury is just causing higher prices.

People been checking their watches for 3 years now talking about a crash that’s impending.

Yeah true. Not just wood. Everything. Family owns a construction company. Sure, framing is just a part of the equation. But that's not even all the wood you need (floor joists...etc). That also ignores the fact that Steel, copper and the labor to install it all went up as well. Conservative estimates would put the price increase of materials at least around 25-30% post-pandemic. Service prices are even higher.

I probably singled out wood above because of the FAST and FURIOUS memes people were posting about lumber trucks. But it's only part of the equation.

Assuming an ADU is an acronym for an in law apartment.

(Edit: a few words)

My partner and I are considering relocating to my home state for myriad reasons, and a big component is housing. I like NH, but it’s becoming increasingly less likely we’ll be able to reach our life goals here. Such is life.

This is very subjective to a specific area, this statement may be 100% true in your area. But not all.

I wouldn't say luxury homes are more profitable, from what I saw working in real estate in Texas was that at 3% people that could afford a $400k+ home could not afford that same home above 4-5%.

What made homes more profitable in the Austin area was by building them very close in these tight knit neighborhoods that popped out of nowhere. Regardless if they were plain Jane or luxury type homes, they were built as cheaply as possible.

But most people are priced out by the now higher interest rates.

Gotta know when to hold ‘em, it’s a gamble. I don’t feel bad most of the builders I’ve seen are from out of state.

Haha yeah, I don't feelbad for them AT ALL either.

It's a good way to keep younger people in the state.

I’d love to sell - but it’s not like Maine is cheaper. Or Mass. or Vermont. Or Montana. Dumb article because everything is going up.

WMUR, you don't say, MA people are moving to NH and driving up the real estate prices?Was this article written in 1970? Or 1980, or 1990,.... I seem to remember reading it back then.

By the way, housing crashes follow unemployment. When unemployment starts raising, start to be concerned. Until then people can afford to pay their mortgages.

You're getting downvoted, but it's a good point. The train would only help people that are already commuting. It's not like the service is going to magically create a ton of vacant housing units. Demand is already there, supply isn't.

Makes sense --- Texas seems to love it's "McMansion" neighborhoods

Regardless, 3 years isn’t that long when it comes to the economy

Yup

Will really depend on unemployment. With stagflation, crappy business earnings, rising rates (which the fed will def. raise), and record consumer debt... Something's going to break. We're just in the beginning phases of layoffs.

Will it plummet as much as it rose? Probably not, but a 15-20% decrease wouldn't be off the table depending on area. Housing is typically 15 year cycle and we're entering a new cycle.

Gonna sell my house soon and move out of state. Feeling super lucky—as long as this market holds for the next couple months.

Shit, my house has gained $100k in value since we overpaid by $100k in late 2021. I keep expecting the market to tank, but it's like we're in a weird island market but without a water constraint.

>US consumer debt it ratcheting up very quickly

Maybe this will push prices down over time. I suspect its impact will be limited due to landlords, especially corporate ones. I don't think they have many incentives to sell their property.

I'm taking out of my ass a bit, because I don't know how much of the US, or NH housing marking its controlled by mom-and-pop landlords, or corporate landlords.

My biggest hope is that high prices incentivize builders to produce more housing, assuming NIMBYs can get out of the way.

Almost all for rent or way too high priced for locals.

Source: Me, a born and raise New Hampshirite, portsmithian for the past 6 years, struggling to find housing while making decent money looking up to 45 minutes from town as i work on the coast

Although 20,000 people (sounds small), it has a big impact in NH. Most of these people are concentrated in the 1 hour drive to Boston portion of the state. I know in the Seacoast region prices remain high because inventory is very low.

Demand has far outstripped supply. Building more is increasing supply. There's no magic wand you can wave to decrease costs without making more housing.

There is no magic wand but discouraging people buying a third rental property out bidding the first time home owner and offering support to first time home owners would assist with the issue. Supply and demand has 2 factors. More houses fixes the low supply high demand but lowering the demand is easier than increasing supply.

Yes multifamilies being built faster than single family has cause a conflict between high demand of downsizes and first time home buyers but this is usually maintained by the group of small house owners leaving smaller houses opening up properties. The issue now is people holding onto additional homes for rent or "as investments" causing an artificial restriction in supply

Offering support to first time home owners would increase demand significantly because it would increase the pool of people that can buy houses. And, I'd be curious how you suggest we "discourage" people from buying properties.

The only way out is to increase supply, or decrease demand.

Totally insane now. Bought my house in Exeter on 2.5 acres for under $350K in 2014 and I could get $600K walking away. Maybe even $700K with the property (not house) improvements I've done myself. Of course, if I did that, to keep any profit and stay in the seacoast, I'd probably have to live in a treehouse...

That's the trap, right?