Don't Underestimate The Cold

Submitted by TheCloudBoy t3_10smaez in newhampshire

First, a big shout out to others here who have correctly warned folks about the dangers of venturing outside into the cold both today & Saturday. Wind chills into the -30 range for most of the state aren't unheard of. However, it's chills exceeding -60 to -80 degrees that the majority of hikers & skiers here have likely never experienced in their lifetimes.

For some context, when chills fall to/below -60, frostbite sets in around 5 minutes, followed by hypothermic disorientation (loss of cognitive function, figurative undressing, slurred speech, etc.) in 15 minutes, and ultimately death after.

This graphic of lowest wind chills from Eric Weglarz is circulating. Some likely remember that name from WMUR, where he was a meteorologist previously. He reportedly left TV in disgust and joined a weather company to build a weather model (which this is from). Obviously the model has some limitations capturing the worst cold atop Mt. Washington, but chills exceeding -70 across the higher summits & ski slopes seem very reasonable:

https://i.redd.it/0uco30r000ga1.gif

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Sirhc978 t1_j72705n wrote

WMUR was saying the windchill on Mt. Washington could be -100F and that the troposphere might actually dip below the observatory, putting it briefly in the stratosphere.

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Mapsachusetts t1_j7282dc wrote

Well I wasn’t going to go hiking this weekend but this might be my only chance to visit the stratosphere so now I have to reconsider…

(/s just in case.)

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j727yup wrote

I suspect that happens! They (WMUR) waited until the NWS highlighted that, even though this scenario was clearly in play to any sensible meteorologist multiple days in advance. This mechanism is called a tropopause fold and part of the reason why the winds are expected to accelerate so much atop Washington (see the Bernoulli Principle).

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WhoWhatWhereWhenHowY t1_j72gmqw wrote

This is really interesting. I had never heard of a tropopause fold before. I tried a brief search to figure out the mechanisms that cause it but is it just a strong high pressure system?

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j72ism2 wrote

Hey I'm glad meteorologists can teach people new things! So not quite, a tropopause fold/depression occurs just behind a upper-level jet stream associated with a strong cyclone, in this case a piece of the tropospheric Polar Vortex that's been pinched off.

The reason why Bernoulli acceleration occurs at the fold is a difference in density: the bottom of the stratosphere directly above the tropopause gets increasingly warmer, drier, and therefore more stable than the airmass below it. So, that rapidly increasing stability creates the "flow squeeze" effect between the fold and the White Mountains, thus accelerating the winds.

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WhoWhatWhereWhenHowY t1_j72l009 wrote

That is very interesting. I have to say one thing that has always blown my mind with meteorology is how much air doesn't like to mix and can have huge velocity gradients that I wouldn't expect from fluids. How a tornado holds itself together is just magic to me.

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Belowmylevel t1_j75kfox wrote

Do you have a visual aid that helps explain this by chance?

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manbunsandkayaks t1_j72q175 wrote

Great post

As I was driving home (Jackson) I shook my head at all the idiots parked at trail heads

Mainly Connecticut Mass and Rhode Island

Few New Jersey

Few NH stragglers

Now this portion of my comment may get a downvote: I almost wish that rangers or someone will come and ticket these people for their wrecklessness prior to their big SAR bill they get that puts rescuers at big time danger. Maybe that way they can catch the idiots sooner than later. And also ticket those who decide to go on trails wearing crocs and flip flops during “normal” weather 😑🤡🥴🥴

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baddspellar t1_j73690b wrote

When Kate Matrosova died a few years ago, the temperature was -35F, and winds were 79MPH, for a wind chill of -88.

Weather is already more severe than that. Temperature is -35F, but winds are 89MPH, with gusts to 107MPH. Windchill is -90F. It will get worse. If someone tries to summit anything in the Northern Presidential today, they cannot be rescued. Anyone up there without a survival shelter will die. With a survival shelter, you have to hope you can live until conditions ease to the point where humans can walk again. That won't be until tomorrow, at best.

It would be possible to summit something below treeline, but the only reason to do that today would be to brag about it. Every summit will still be open on Sunday, when conditions are expected to be be downright pleasant.

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manbunsandkayaks t1_j7377hb wrote

Yep read the book 3 times. I just can’t seem to fathom some of the things people do and you nailed it “to brag”. I mean some people have to truly swallow their pride and acknowledge when bad is truly fucking bad and to just stay home

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_tjb t1_j74b7hi wrote

Warden’s Watch Podcast with former NH Game Warden Wayne Saunders (awesome podcast) did a multiple part series on the Kate Matrosova tragedy. Well worth a listen.

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boldolive t1_j740dyu wrote

You saw people parked at WMNF trailheads today?? We make fun of those people, but I really didn’t expect anyone to go up today or tomorrow.

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manbunsandkayaks t1_j7411qk wrote

YES!! And it wasn’t like just parked to pull over. One car with NH plates was still running so well let that one slide but CT and a few Mass and RI were scattered throughout, cars off, no one to be seen. I legit slowed down to see if I can see a head in the car or if someone was just taking a pic of the sign or something. But NOPE! I think they decided to truly take on Mother Nature

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Happy_Confection90 t1_j749btb wrote

For God's sake. SAR must be tempted to let the gene pool clean itself tonight.

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lintylint t1_j76bx26 wrote

There’s an ice climbing festival happening in the Mount Washington Valley this weekend so the cars you saw were likely climbers. As far as I know clinics haven’t been canceled for today… just wild.

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Emeleigh_Rose t1_j72u6qq wrote

Eric Weglarz was such a great meteorologist and personality on WMUR. I’m in the Lakes Region and feel concerned for the players and spectators for the pond hockey tournament being held at Waukewan in my town this weekend.

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Koality_Gainz t1_j72vyth wrote

I played this morning at 8am. Someone is 100% getting frostbite. We were there at the warmest part of the day and I am still regaining feeling in my fingers.

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Emeleigh_Rose t1_j73v6ac wrote

My neighbor is an EMT for Meredith. She said there were 82 cases of frostbite at Waukewan. Crazy.

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Least-Car6096 t1_j73x9zs wrote

Wow. Today? My husband & brother in law are playing in that tournament this weekend and staying in Meredith. I’ve been so anxious worrying about frost bite and these hockey guys downplaying the cold to be tough. When I FaceTimed them after their first game this morning, their eye lashes & brows were frozen.

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Koality_Gainz t1_j73zj6j wrote

Holy! That is wild. I don’t doubt it though, it was wild

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Emeleigh_Rose t1_j73jzq2 wrote

Brrr! That's dedication to your sport. Hope your fingers recovere and your team does well.

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boldolive t1_j740lr6 wrote

I was really surprised when I heard they didn’t reschedule. 🤦‍♀️

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Least-Car6096 t1_j74dhny wrote

Me too 😑 a few weeks ago the officials were saying the tournament might be cancelled due to the fact that Winnipesaukee wasn’t frozen enough to play on yet. Now it sounds like they’re going to cancel tomorrows games and the rest of the tournament. One of the players on my husbands team got minor frost bite on a few fingers (while using hand warmers) and all of them have wind burned chapped faces already….gatta love wasting all that money on new winter gear, travel & lodging just to have it get shut down. Oh! And the power in their air b n b went out too so they’re keeping warm at a restaurant right now. Sounds like a blast up there!

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boldolive t1_j74z31e wrote

Yeah, it’s hard to prevent people from participating after they’ve spent so much money and effort to travel. The organizers should have canceled sooner.

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Viking603 t1_j73j769 wrote

A new record low temp was set at 1pm on Mt Washington today.

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Crichton-Kicks t1_j72bxtc wrote

Sending my prayers for all the fools who think their pellet stove will be just fine during this cold spell.....

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Delicious-Basil4986 t1_j72hlue wrote

And why are pellet stoves affected by cold? I understand mini-splits hav8ng an issue, but not pellet stoves.

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DeerFlyHater t1_j732ybx wrote

They're not.

Holier than thou folks are just being their typical selves.

It's a balmy 72 in the house right now heating with the wood stove. It will be over 60 in the house when I wake up. Other portions of the house, such as the basement, is heated by other sources.

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ReauxChambeaux t1_j736kn2 wrote

My living room hit 91° today. Decided to close the damper a bit.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j736ew8 wrote

I'm curious: how many square feet are you heating with the pellet stove, do you have some sort of circulation system near it that more effectively distributes heat around the house, and is your house better insulated to begin with?

My parents ditched their pellet stove over a decade ago because it could not effectively heat portions of the house and relied on oil-fired

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DeerFlyHater t1_j749ued wrote

I'm in a tiny rental house-built within the last 20 years and is pretty tight. 1K sq ft upstairs and it is heated by the wood stove only. It's a small all steel instead of cast iron stove, so it warms up quick but also drops off quick. It has electric heat as a backup that I set at 50 and it never comes on.

Edit to add, no circulation needed due to the layout of the house. The general theory with circulation is push the denser cold air towards the heated part.

The downstairs(house is on a slab so it's a garage) is another 1K sq ft with all the water stuff and laundry room. It is heated by electric garage heaters. Those heaters are crazy expensive to run.

Downstairs is set at 50 with the temp checked a few times a day, upstairs is whatever the woodstove feels like doing. See the above post of the guy at 91. With the exception of just before bed time, I try to keep it in the 70s but sometimes it gets nuts.

I'm having a 1400 sq ft house built in Coös County. The basement will be oil fired radiant heat in the floor. So will the main floor, but I plan on heating it with a wood stove and using oil as the backup. I have a Hearthstone Green Mountain 60 sitting at the dealer, waiting for my builder to be ready for it. I may need to use some sort of circulation to move heat around. I'll find out next winter.

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CPUequalslotsofheat t1_j76mcaq wrote

Do you have good windows, or, how do you keep them leak proof.

I read your above post about your house being 72 degrees which is pretty good during Arctic blast. Upper midwest here, so I do know a thing about cold..😪

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DeerFlyHater t1_j76vhpx wrote

They're just normal double pane windows with the typical draft here and there, but they are pretty tight. No idea what brand.

Sitting at 73 degrees inside right now. I did wake up a bit early at 6 to feed the woodstove though.

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Delicious-Basil4986 t1_j73sief wrote

I was wondering. Ours keeps half the house 70 or so and the wood stove heats the other half. Now the mini split on the other hand...

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j72kfiv wrote

I think it relates to the amount of heat they can produce:

Pellet stoves: Up to 90,000 BTU/hr

Natural gas-fired furnaces: Up to 140,000 BTU/hr

Oil-fired furnaces: Up to 160,000 BTU/hr

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Crichton-Kicks t1_j72n16m wrote

This pellet stoves are anemic and can barely keep up then people be like

"Why are my pipes frozen "

When these same people only run the pellet stove not caring how cold their basement gets

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Ambitious_Lie_2065 t1_j72ob9n wrote

Real talk: I got something planned in Portsmouth tonight, goes from like 8 to midnight. At this point should I just cancel? It’s indoors but I’m low key worried about the drive

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j72pcmg wrote

Unless you have a difficult time driving in gusty winds, you should be fine. Make sure you've got plenty of gas and bring a winter kit with you should the car battery die in the cold. That should include water, food that's easy to digest but provides a decent calorie load, and plenty of warm clothing

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DeerFlyHater t1_j732fto wrote

It's just cold and wind. Prepare accordingly and have a great time.

The state crews are salting the roads as some of the wind blown snow froze on the roads earlier.

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OccasionallyImmortal t1_j733olt wrote

These temperatures are frightening. I'll never forget hiking in Vermont at -17. I was dressed appropriately, but had to reload the film in my camera which required me to remove my gloves. In the 2 minutes that my hand was exposed, it went completely numb.

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MacTechG4 t1_j736dnk wrote

Back in the late ‘90s, I was skiing at Crotched Mountain (just outside the Keene area) where summit temperatures in still air were -52F, it was great! I was all bundled up in ski gear and had the mountain to myself (and a couple college friends)

Around 2005, I was living in Vermont (Barre area) and it was -30F for at least a couple weeks…

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kevkev87 t1_j75j47i wrote

The coldest temp ever recorded in NH was negative 47 so no, you did not ski in still air -52. There has also never been multiple weeks of -30 in Barre. What are you even going on about?

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MacTechG4 t1_j76b56l wrote

Maybe the -52 was with wind chill, it was a long time ago, same in Vermont probably, either way, it was bloody cold.

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work-n-lurk t1_j73pvof wrote

Yikes, I did one day at Tenney with a friend that the wind chill was -33.
We lasted til noon, then went and hung out at Nu-Wave in Laconia.
The owner (Jim?) was showing us the new Apocalypse Jimi Scott model and the new hot shit was rotatable highbacks.

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rabblebowser t1_j73obfl wrote

Thea REAL story is Weglarz "leaving TV in disgust" .... whats that all about?

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boldolive t1_j740uzb wrote

Hm, interesting… I liked him. I’d love to hear the scoop if anyone has deets.

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rabblebowser t1_j743ec3 wrote

He was pretty awful if you read his personal twitter. I looked at it every now and then because I always enjoyed watching him. He's very conservative and somewhat of a conspiracy theorist and I would imagine WMUR was not happy with his posts. He had a lot of stuff about the election being stolen from Trump, even when things were disproved. I would assume it had something to do with that. Here is a good recent one:

This quote about the shooting in Manchester is really interesting, given:

  1. Clear and convincing video evidence that a blindside punch from the victim started the violence
  2. A second video captures the shooter claiming to have been punched inside The Goat
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boldolive t1_j744z8m wrote

Yikes. Sounds like he’d rather be among a different group of “journalists.” Thank you!

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Fenwick19 t1_j74x0jr wrote

Pretty sure the OP is Eric himself, talking in the third person

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rabblebowser t1_j7503ee wrote

I agree !

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j758ubp wrote

No, though I know for a fact he lurks here often so he'll probably chime in on your assessment about being awful. We're all pretty tight in the weather community and if there's one thing Eric isn't, it's a wacky conspiracy theorist.

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NinoNino3 t1_j76mtli wrote

Decided to do my run along route 1 Rye Beach/ N Hampton this AM.

Massive layers, good coat, hat, gloves.

Holy COW. I have never seen anything like this.. Made it half way and said "F-CK THIS!!!!!!"

God bless the homeless in these conditions- That is all I could think about.

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PNWMunky t1_j75osam wrote

This sub is like a knitting circle

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tommyd1018 t1_j735610 wrote

Is this the first time its been cold in New Hampshire? Genuinely curious because of all the places I've lived this is the only subreddit where I've had to see 19 posts about it being cold over a weekend

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Reubachi t1_j73e3zk wrote

This sub regularly has 2-3 posts a day like "Where can I hike this weekend?" or "we're visiting from north carolina and would like to drive the kancamangus, is there gas?"

So hopefully 10 posts about "You will die. do not hike." get the point across the the absolute tons of people that want to bag peaks in winter months.

it isn't just people thinking this is the coldest state or whatever. it will actually save lives. I've myself not gone out after reading some comments on this sub about really cold weekends.

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chrisgeleven t1_j74i5n9 wrote

There is always a few days per winter where we dip into negative temps for a day or two. But the challenge here is the sustained negative temps and windchills, never mind factoring in what the mountains are seeing. That is unusual. Tomorrow morning will likely be the coldest temps I’ve ever witnessed in 40+ years here.

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SkiingAway t1_j73czhp wrote

Eh, it's uncommon to result in being quite this level of apparent temp/wind chill.

And it is notable in some other ways: Mt. Washington looks like it may break the coldest temp ever recorded there tonight (record is -47F).

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j736j93 wrote

It's the number of people who have already died coming into the winter outdoors, particularly out of state folks hiking in the White Mountains

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CDogNH t1_j7367o2 wrote

Wow. How fascinating. Who knew that extreme cold could have negative impact on one's health? Amazing.

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Alternative-Cry-4667 t1_j72cr9x wrote

I’m embarrassed that we have to talk about cold weather in New Hampshire! What is the world coming to?

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AnythingToAvoidWork t1_j72hw71 wrote

Come off it.

This weekend has the potential for being the second coldest temperatures I've seen in 30 years of living in NH. There's no reason to pretend this isn't exceptionally cold.

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ThisIsNotTuna t1_j72f0i1 wrote

Everyone's a bad ass until the subzero temperatures settle in.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j72cw7e wrote

Me too, but the multiple fatalities on the Whites heading into the season paired with the surge of homeless led us to this point.....

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KiefRichardson t1_j736zc9 wrote

fatalities in the whites in 2022 is in line with past years.

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Reubachi t1_j73ef09 wrote

Yes, and now there's the coldest weather system in 30 years hitting on a typical winter-sports vacation weekend.

Why are we gatekeeping cold/safety?

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KiefRichardson t1_j73ngha wrote

Was I gatekeeping cold/safety? Or was I just pointing out that fatalities in 2022 in the whites was in line with past years?

Best not to read into comments too deeply and just take them at face value.

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MartoufCarter t1_j72mia3 wrote

Cold is one thing but we have not seen these temps in decades. It is one thing to be cold and another where frostbite can set in in less than 5 min.

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Happy_Confection90 t1_j74ab6o wrote

I read something this morning that said it hasn't been this cold since 2016, but maybe they just meant the actual temperature because I don't think the windchill has been as low as they predict tonight will be since January 2000 when we had that bitterly cold MLK day.

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Alternative-Cry-4667 t1_j73q01b wrote

Weather observer Tom Padham said his colleagues saw the observatory's coldest temperature ever recorded on a Dec. 28 at around 5 a.m., according to NH Public Radio, which said the negative 34 degrees "came alongside wind chills at minus 89 degrees, with sustained winds over 100 miles per hour,” NHPR reported. December 28, 2017.

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movdqa t1_j733o7e wrote

We had -20 degrees (air temp, not wind chill) in early 2018. I don't even think that we're getting there in my town this tonight or this weekend. I plan to go for a walk tonight when it gets down to -30 windchill.

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Alternative-Cry-4667 t1_j73ostr wrote

I believe that was the end of December 2017. We had -20 for a week. I worked outside every day still have all my fingers and toes. I’m not sure why people are making a big deal out of cold weather in New Hampshire.

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movdqa t1_j73q2ms wrote

I was in DC the first week of 2018 and we had -20 temps and would have expected it to be a bit colder in NH.

Cold weather isn't a problem if you're dressed for it or if you can scoot inside to warm up from time to time.

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Reubachi t1_j73egv7 wrote

gatekeeping posting on the internet about weather/safety.

Christ.

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tommyd1018 t1_j735mci wrote

I'm with you. Just moved to NH about 4 months ago and confused why this is such a topic of conversation for like 5 straight days now. It's gonna be cold. We get it. It snows in Dallas and people aren't in this much of a tizzy.

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underratedride t1_j72n3ip wrote

>I’m embarrassed that we have to talk about the cold weather in New Hampshire!

We don’t need to.

People from MA have infiltrated the state and the subreddit and MUST tell everyone else how to live their lives at every chance they get.

Keep bringing the downvotes and proving my point.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j72obg4 wrote

Look, I'm perfectly content with letting everyone do what they please, that's what makes the state great. My concern is 1) this airmass is extremely unusual, 2) most people have never experienced chills like what we expect in the Whites, & 3) we've already had fatalities in the Whites from people (sadly all from MA) who come to enjoy the Whites, are massively underequipped, and don't bother to get good forecasts. If I can help save a few lives with this info, I've done my job.

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underratedride t1_j72ww49 wrote

>If I can help save a few lives with this info, I’ve done my job.

Holy hell. What a complex that must be. It is your job to make sure that people live.

If someone is dumb enough to go hiking in these conditions, they get what they deserve. My only issue is that they should suspend all search and rescue efforts during these sort of temperatures.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j730j1m wrote

Providing accurate and understandable weather forecasts absolutely saves lives, it's irrefutable. I mean, look at how many people were killed in the Blizzard of 1978 to Hurricane Ian in 2022.

I agree with you that all SAR should be suspended in this.

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tommyd1018 t1_j735yo4 wrote

So the 10 posts prior to yours about the same cold weather weren't enough to change people's minds, but you have single handedly saved lives. Truly doing God's work out there kid, keep up the good work.

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TutenWelch t1_j73q1o0 wrote

I grew up in New Hampshire in the 70s and 80s. During one of the big blizzards we jumped out of the second floor bathroom window into the snow drift and dug a tunnel to the driveway.

And this shit is still really fucking cold, you talking trucker hat.

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DeerFlyHater t1_j73257c wrote

Nailed it.

Heck, this isn't even extreme weather if you're prepared for it. Sure, it's not North Dakota, but I could have sworn New Hampshire was a state that saw winter from time to time. Not to mention, it warms up to darn near 40 on Monday.

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Alternative-Cry-4667 t1_j73pjmu wrote

I couldn’t agree more

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underratedride t1_j746el4 wrote

Many positive comments, but the downvotes continue. I swear this site is no different than twitter. More than half of the users are just bots.

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