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TheCloudBoy t1_jaazcoh wrote

Why hello haha, I hope I can be of some assistance here! So a few thoughts:

  1. Your suspicion on a convergence to higher QPF (liquid precip equivalent) has certainly occurred over the past 36 hours for portions of NH. This has been focused in three areas: SE exposures of the Whites, eastern NH near the inverted trough axis, & ESE exposures along the Mondanock Region
  2. Big reason for the uptick in precip is from convective bursts set to form along the inverted trough axis forming in the Gulf of Maine and extending into ME. My thesis focused on similar events and found mesoscale models are far better resolving this (obviously) than the GFS or ECMWF.
  3. I'm not surprised a number of TV stations are lazily ripping whatever the ECMWF forecasts without really trying, this is a major gripe I've had lately.
  4. Snow ratios are going to vary with the event by location, so using the 10:1 static ratio will get you into trouble here away from the Seacoast & lower Merrimack Valley. Lift through the dendritic growth zone isn't wildly impressive but I can absolutely see snow ratios average to 12-15:1 across interior NH, especially northern Strafford, all of Carroll, and the Whites.
  5. We've been all over this at the company I work for, here's the gridded forecast we were giving clients this afternoon. This is a dynamic ratio forecast using a superensemble approach with an emphasis on the mesoscale model data. I'm convinced locations in/north of Effingham get pasted and someone comes close to 12" there. We starkly contradicted the NWS in a number of areas and feel confident we will be successful in doing so:

[deleted] OP t1_jab0l2k wrote



TheCloudBoy t1_jab11q0 wrote

Yeah I'm very interested in this as well! It's consistently not been too keen on this inverted trough taking shape & lingering, which is more or less half the puzzle to getting these bursts of snow going.