One Final Look at The Incoming Snow & Wind

Submitted by TheCloudBoy t3_11h9djd in newhampshire

While there's still time left, here's the last forecast bid before snow starts overnight! I'm still really blown away by the lack of clarity in the swarm of lazily drawn snow forecast maps out today, compare mine and the difference will be stark. Here are some thoughts to consider:

  1. You lovely people get not one, but three different pieces of data to help drive your decisions tonight/Saturday. By decisions, it's probably how early you should leave the bar.
  2. The double-band structure remains on track to blast portions of the state, with the trend shifting to more liquid-equivalent falling (and ultimately more snow). The first band will set up from Antrim ENE through Rochester, with the second hugging the Whites. There will be a void in snow to the NNW of each band axis driven by subsidence from mesoscale banding and/or downsloping.
  3. Two periods of strong winds are expected Saturday; the third graphic is the max wind gusts (across both periods) from the weather model I run at my company. The strongest gusts will occur on the W & NW facing slopes & across eastern NH.
  4. Power outages are possible from strong winds unloading wet snow from trees across the Monadnock Region south of Antrim and the Seacoast south of Farmington. I'm particularly concerned about the southern Monadnock Region, where the number & density of conifers is notably higher.

Most Likely Snowfall

Arrival of Snow

Maximum Wind Gusts

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Comments

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FlyingLemurs76 t1_jas9cw9 wrote

What contributes to the little pockets of lesser snowfall in swarths of greater snowfall? Geographical terrain features?

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akmjolnir t1_jascd3f wrote

Two things:

  1. Thanks

  2. When are you teaming up with Hillbilly Weatherman.

  3. (Can't count) Is it possible to pick colors for the snowfall map with more contrast? The 4-8" and 8-12" look almost identical to my moderately colorblind eyes.

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FelangyRegina t1_jascr2m wrote

I literally wait for your forecasts before I plan anything. Thank you.

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WMDLaotian t1_jascx3u wrote

The real question is, did you go grab some bread and milk?

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newenglandpolarbear t1_jaseoan wrote

Plow Guys and Fire Departments are not going to get any sleep that's for sure. Thank you for your weather forecasting Mr. CloudBoy!

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CheliceraeJones t1_jashkim wrote

>I'm still really blown away by the lack of clarity in the swarm of lazily drawn snow forecast maps out today, compare mine and the difference will be stark.

Why do you feel the need to include shit like this? It makes you sound incredibly unprofessional.

−26

TheCloudBoy OP t1_jasihw6 wrote

Replying to CheliceraeJones (#2,153,537)

  1. It's completely fair to explain right off the top that there's a host of junk being shot around, especially given I don't want to have to answer 5 questions that ask "why does yours have 6"+ more/less than "x" station's map".
  2. I'd want someone to openly destroy my map if it looked like flaming garbage, had noticeable inaccuracies, and I was being paid lots of money to provide better forecasts. It's irrefutable that what's circulating today is lazily drawn, the public deserves better and that's in part why I do this. Just one example: I've seen three different forecasts show 8"+ for the central Monadnock Region. That's lazy.
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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jasjt5y wrote

Replying to CheliceraeJones (#2,153,607)

This is Reddit. My critique above is within the normal bounds of what a) I usually give and b) what others in my field typically do. The forecasts circulating are lazily drawn and need to look better, period. End of story. I'm here to provide useful weather info, not get into arguments on the degree of professionalism I should adhere to on Reddit, sorry.

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batmansmotorcycle t1_jaskltn wrote

Replying to CheliceraeJones (#2,153,537)

He’s not wrong the “weather people “ on TV are utter shit and dumb down the forecast for the lowest common denominator so they can squeeze in more ad time. Weather apps are also shit and sadly too many people rely on an icon on their phone to plan for what could be life threatening storms. I appreciate the rationale behind his forecasting.

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Emeleigh_Rose t1_jasl65h wrote

Thanks, CloudBoy for taking the time to post such detailed information and maps. It's much appreciated.

8

TheCloudBoy OP t1_jaslw5p wrote

Replying to BlueRabbitx (#2,153,653)

A good question! The rationale for both is as follows:

  1. Littleton: strong ESE winds Saturday morning will downslope over the Kinsman-Cannon & Franconia Range spines. Downsloping winds dry & warm the air locally downrange of this action, or locations immediately to the NW of Sugar Hill.
  2. Nashua: The depression there is for the potential for sub-par thermal profiles dramatically lowering snow ratios, with multiple windows where wet snow changes to sleet.
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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jasrie9 wrote

Replying to Fenwick19 (#2,153,920)

I assume you're in the camp that thinks I'm the former WMUR met haha. I definitely think wind holds are on the table for Cannon Saturday, I'd be shocked if they opened to be honest.

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Strict_Zebra_3585 t1_jat2c07 wrote

I reject this forecast and substitute sunny and 70 degrees. All in favor?

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underratedride t1_jat4tw9 wrote

Dude.. please please please let this be accurate for that little pocket of Littleton. Oh that just looks so nice.

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Queasy_Turnover t1_jat7mka wrote

Replying to batmansmotorcycle (#2,153,658)

I mean, what do you want them to do? That's like getting mad that the evening news doesn't delve in to advanced statistics when they're giving a recap of last night's game.

Most people don't care about the reasoning, they just want to know how much snow they might get. The in-depth details are out there for those who want them, that's not what a weather report on the news is for.

3

Chinook146 t1_jatczkb wrote

Any chance my flight tomorrow at noonish stays on schedule out of MHT lol?

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NotARobotDefACyborg t1_jatf832 wrote

This is the best weather map I've ever seen. Even Weather Underground's map isn't this detailed. Very impressive, and most probably accurate too. The North Country is gonna get clobbered, and I surely hope that they're prepared.

4

NotARobotDefACyborg t1_jatgggy wrote

PSA:

Concord Coach Lines has cancelled its first 3 services for the day for FRIDAY, 3/4/2023, due to the approaching snowstorm and anticipated accumulation. Link to the PDF of the adjusted schedule below; cancelled routes are highlighted in YELLOW.

NEW HAMPSHIRE CANCELLATIONS:

https://concordcoachlines.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CCL-NH-Cancelations-Delays-030423-OUTLINE.pdf

​

MAINE CANCELLATIONS:

https://concordcoachlines.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CCL-MAINE-Cancelations-Delays-030423-REV.pdf

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jimsensei t1_jatiw3d wrote

Where's Frankie MacDonald when you need him?

1

Fly4aPhish t1_jatln7u wrote

Replying to TheCloudBoy (#2,154,560)

I like the color choices in option 1. To me they are very clearly and quickly distinguishable.

It uses different shades of different colors rather than a gradient of a single color. It seems like that would be the least likely from people to have trouble with. I'm guessing these colors choices were picked with that in mind.

The single color gradient is difficult for me. I can see that it looks like the selected colors were picked evenly across the gradient. To me however two colors look nearly identical because my eyes don't easily see the color information somewhere in that band.

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chronic_pain_sucks t1_jatne3b wrote

Stop calling him Cloud Boy. His name is Tim the Enchanter!!!

PS thank you, Tim.

2

WellWhatTheHeck_1 t1_jatwmc4 wrote

Came to Reddit just now looking for you specifically, TCB.

What is your opinion of New England Weather Guy on FB (don't worry, I won't tell him)?

His map does look more simplistic, but numbers are in the ballpark.

Thanks for all your work.

Happy storming.

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Upset-Jellyfish1 t1_jatwmqp wrote

The color selections are very pleasing the amount of snow, not so much.

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tomsbradys t1_jaujr05 wrote

Odds of my flight out of Portsmouth leaving tomorrow at 6pm? 😂🥲

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pixieanddixie t1_jaulete wrote

Can we crowdsource and get CloudBoy weather app up and running?? 😍

2

smavonco t1_jauqzjf wrote

I wish i was a meteorologist. Sounds fun reading your forecasts.

1

Digipete t1_jausha2 wrote

Replying to NotARobotDefACyborg (#2,154,962)

Quite a few years back I used Wunderground as my go to. Then everything went, well, clunky. Their forecasts were not just off, but WAY off.

I said to myself "How are they as bad as Weather channel now?"

I then looked at Weather Channel and compared forecasts for a few days. The exact same wildly inaccurate forecasts! WTF?

The answer was simple: IBM bought Wunderground. IBM also owns, you guessed it, Weather Channel!

I now use Accuweather, which isn't nearly as good as what WU used to be, but is way ahead of what WU and WC is.

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Just-10247-LOC t1_jav7kvk wrote

I try to imagine you speaking this report as Al Kaprielian.

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Valriete t1_javaf9z wrote

Thank you as always for the map and thoughtful analysis!

> Power outages are possible from strong winds unloading wet snow from trees across the Monadnock Region south of Antrim...

We have plenty of bread, eggs, and milk, and I bought beer Thursday night, so this might be on me. You're welcome, neighbors!

(Power's been fine so far, but we're on a main road.)

1

fraulein_nh t1_javdkaa wrote

Thank you for taking the time to develop these and to share your knowledge! It’s so interesting to see your rationale and read your explanations of how you interpret and read your reports.

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scajjr29 t1_javncsc wrote

kingston here, about 3-4 inches as of 7:30am. Very fine precip falling right now, snow with a little mix maybe.

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GoldenSheppard t1_javueup wrote

Cloudbae, can't you shake your magic stick and make the snow less... slush?

1