Final Snow Map & Messaging For Tuesday's Nor'Easter

Submitted by TheCloudBoy t3_11qev87 in newhampshire

This is my final forecast for snow totals ahead of Tuesday's nor'easter set to bombard most of the Northeast U.S. Because I enjoy taking on seemingly ludicrous challenges, I've included best-guess snowfall totals for select locations on this map. There are several important updates, here's what you should know:

  1. A powerful winter storm is imminent for the Granite State Tuesday AM through Wednesday AM. This cyclone will undergo explosive deepening (bombogenesis) during it's closest "wobble" to us. Please don't call this a "bomb cyclone"; be smarter than the lemmings hurting for ratings on the national TV outlets.
  2. Significant snow accumulations are imminent along this storm's deformation axis across the Monadnock Region, upper Merrimack Valley, & eastern Lakes Region. 16-24" amounts are likely above 1,500 feet in the Monadnock Region, with isolated 24"+ on Mt. Monadnock & Pack Monadnock. I've extended the 12-16" band through Hooksett & Bow, additional increases through Manchester, Bedford, & Auburn are also possible.
  3. A brief window of damaging wind gusts (50-65 MPH) are now expected between 1-6 PM Tuesday, which will be at the leading edge of a bent-back warm front as the warm core seclusion develops. These gusts will occur in/east Raymond, but may reach Concord/Manchester/Nashua if the low wobbles further west.
  4. The weight of the snow will become increasingly heavy & sticky (low snow ratios of 5.5-9:1) in/southeast of Manchester, where temperatures are marginal for most of this event. Power outages are possible from the combo of strong winds & wet snow here; use caution if shoveling.

https://preview.redd.it/z7tn5ngq9jna1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e27bf81fc16df9a7f900c80b467a30fce815662f

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Comments

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thetruthaboutcows t1_jc2scm8 wrote

I don’t envy the TV mets on this storm. One of the most challenging forecasts I’ve seen especially for SE NH and around the 495 belt into the Merrimack Valley. Your map looks good though, maybe we’ll get a little better model consensus this evening but it’s looking more like a nowcast event.

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Killbro_Fraggins t1_jc2sdpi wrote

Thanks for your hard work Papa Cloud. Glad I ended up rescheduling. Good luck everyone! Stay warm and safe!

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plz1 t1_jc2tch8 wrote

Any update on when/if we can get higher-contrast coloring on these? I love the accuracy of the previous ones, but the pastel color scheme is hard for some.

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Ayit_Sevi t1_jc2ufy9 wrote

Thanks for this, so it seems like the snow will start off light and be wet/heavy towards the end?

Also, can you ELI5 the snow ratio thing, is this a snow to rain mixture?

>(low snow ratios of 5.5-9:1)

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aristomephisto t1_jc2vh02 wrote

I always think it's crazy that the White Mountains have usually been getting the least amount of snowfall/accumulation. I wonder if it's climate change or the topography. I live here and get pissed off when southern NH and Boston get more snow than us.

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tadamhicks t1_jc2yc8l wrote

Replying to aristomephisto (#2,221,551)

Yeah I’ve noticed that the other side hasn’t had much, but this side has been rowdy. Skiing at valley areas was pretty dang good for a bit. Looks like we’re in the 8-12 range for tomorrow, too.

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benduker7 t1_jc2z19a wrote

Replying to Ayit_Sevi (#2,221,436)

I was curious as well, and found this link which gives a great explanation.

TL;DR: This is the snow to water ratio. So 5.5:1 means if you took 5.5 inches of snow and melted it, you would get 1 inch of water. "Light and fluffy" snow might be 15:1 or 20:1, whereas very heavy snow would be 10:1 or below.

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ItsMeFergie t1_jc323dw wrote

I honestly check this before storms for work. Was just planning whether or schedule installs and send the boys out. You’re the most accurate. Thank you for your service 🫡

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figment1979 t1_jc336nx wrote

Just curious, does "bomb cyclone" actually exist, and if yes, how is it different than this one? I want to sound like I've got inside knowledge. :)

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jc370w8 wrote

Replying to figment1979 (#2,221,811)

Good question! Bomb cyclone is one of those scary characterizations designed by and gobbled up by national media around an actual classification in meteorology. When a cyclone experiences a 24+ mb pressure drop in 24 hours, that's classified as bombogenesis, or explosive deepening.

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movdqa t1_jc37df0 wrote

Looks like another storm, a bit bigger than previous storms but temperatures are going to be warm enough, at least in my area, so that it should be easier to clear. It's enough snow to clear off my roof though. Plan tomorrow is to go to the gym early morning, come home, do errands and then shovel tomorrow afternoon on and off. Looks like the most intense part will be around noon - 5 PM. This looks messy for the afternoon commute.

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rmarkham t1_jc37llg wrote

If I went to work down in mass at 6am or so and left by 10am would I hit bad conditions?

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Emeleigh_Rose t1_jc37mdk wrote

I was hoping for another update today and here it is. Thanks, CloudBoy. Hope everyone can stay indoors and safe for this storm.

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HillyjoKokoMo t1_jc3bdhm wrote

So I take it I might be losing power due to this storm ? Heavy wet snow if I'm understanding right...

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jenkemeater619 t1_jc3dbki wrote

Thanks again for this. Been checking all day for your update! I dont even bother checking the news cause I know cloudboy has the more accurate shit!

I sort of agree with the above comment about the pastel colors. It takes me a minute or two to match the colors up correctly. Beggers cant be choosers though. Maybe I should be tested for color blindness

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ReauxChambeaux t1_jc3e74f wrote

When you say 24+ on pack monadnock do mean literally on the summit. Or the area around it…specifically Temple?

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jc3gnms wrote

Replying to Quirky_Butterfly_946 (#2,222,081)

This has been a challenge, especially given I was using a more detailed color wheel and attempted to hop between shades at a decent clip to help color blind folks. My only hiccup with using WMUR's color table is I don't want to be associated in *any way* with their products, otherwise I'd be working for them. I may implement a similar shade scheme like theirs, but modify it heavily.

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perfectbebop t1_jc3m7xr wrote

Replying to TheCloudBoy (#2,222,401)

No clue if it’d be a good idea considering the size of the map, but could you add pattern to the color bands as a secondary identifier? Is common in board/card games as an adaptive measure for increased accessibility

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Inariele t1_jc3mze7 wrote

Urgh up to 16 inches in my area....I still have an entire snow hill in my drive way. That better be the last snow T_T anyway thanks for all the effort

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Hutwe t1_jc3noam wrote

So, If what I'm seeing is correct - Crotched Mountain could get some serious snowfall and Pats Peak is right on the edge of some. Nice!

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mannye t1_jc3tgp6 wrote

Best time to shovel in Nashua?

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AnythingToAvoidWork t1_jc3yi9u wrote

Really want to take a PTO day to ski but I'm not sure I want to drive in this guy.

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DrTartakovsky t1_jc4188h wrote

Hey @TheCloudBoy, your data is awesome. Thank you! I live in Chester, right between Derry and Raymond. Best guess, how much snow you think I’ll get?

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prokool6 t1_jc44r02 wrote

Just wondering, are the differences following the Pemi and Baker river valleys just explained by elevation? I’ve always had a tough time telling (anecdotally) if the extra ~500-100 feet predictably makes much of a difference in snowfall.

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becky984 t1_jc45sky wrote

Thanks for showing Maine on this map. We’re over here near Augusta and love the accuracy of your work!

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Strict_Zebra_3585 t1_jc4doaq wrote

I would really appreciate it if we could have a "sunny and 75" forecast. I'm rejecting this forecast. Thank you in advance.

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Different_Ad7655 t1_jc4enxx wrote

Well all I can tell you, after almost 40 years of commercially snow plowing, it's going to snow in March, often very significant snowfall, nawth eastuhs in March, heavy and wet and possibly as late as early April absolutely nothing new.. turn off the TV and just sit back and enjoy it. Just be surprised

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Gatorrea t1_jc4fxlr wrote

My job has a "no snow days policy" so wish me luck. Thank you Cloud Boy for the accurate climate forecast.

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Big-al027 t1_jc4z1cg wrote

Any idea what time would be safest to drive from Nashua and south into mass Tuesday night?

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picklehaub t1_jc52m63 wrote

Replying to prokool6 (#2,223,368)

It really does seem to be the elevation, I live about 2 miles from work. House is 200ish feet higher and has 2’ of snow on the ground vs 6-8” at work (right on a good size river).Even driving home at lunch time during a storm I can tell the difference in snow from top of the hill to bottom.

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DogeFlutie t1_jc5aelr wrote

I never get as much snow as these maps predict. Usually it’s about half as much. (I’m near Nashua.)

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stanmeower t1_jc5br8n wrote

Rindge here. Thinking 12 to 24 here and here it is almost Spring!

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dogownedhoomun t1_jc5tp9p wrote

Rain rain rain here at almost 3am... however I'm on the coast

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overdoing_it t1_jc68xrb wrote

Snow this morning in Pittsfield is very wet and heavy. Less than an inch but still a struggle to shovel. Driving to polls is not going to be fun, I'll probably die.

Edit: I lived. Roads not that bad yet. Well they're bad but I'm used to it.

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justnocrazymaker t1_jc6twon wrote

Thank you! Checking in from western Maine, where your forecast is far and away the most accurate.

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