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Undaedalus t1_isomoj7 wrote

Reply to comment by Darwins_Dog in How do you Granite Staters feel about having the first primary in the nation in your state every 4 years? by BoringAccountName78

The purpose of campaigns in NH from a strategy point is not to "win NH". That's not actually important. What is important is to "not lose NH". The person who comes in first in NH doesn't always go on to be the nominee, but the person who comes in last in NH almost never does.

The candidates who come in last and pull single digit numbers will be seen as having forgettable, disorganized campaigns and will have staff leave and donations dry up. Having an early primary prunes a lot of unviable candidates and keeps them from splitting the vote down the line.

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Darwins_Dog t1_isoqqvz wrote

That would be true no matter which state was first, and seems to reinforce the idea that NH is a throwaway primary for the serious candidates. Small enough that the lost delegates don't matter and early so it weeds out the nonviable candidates. If that's what people want here, I'm fine with that.

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Kv603 t1_isowojd wrote

> That would be true no matter which state was first, and seems to reinforce the idea that NH is a throwaway primary for the serious candidates.

Doing it in a small state with a high ratio of "Undeclared" voters makes a difference -- a candidate without a ton of funding can still have a chance here, and the voters (those who care to do so) can literally meet every candidate in person given the number of events and our small size and small population.

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Darwins_Dog t1_isp1aav wrote

I guess I don't see how that's relevant. The rest of the country doesn't really care if people in NH met candidates or not and NH voters don't have any special insights into politics (as much as they may claim otherwise). I can't recall an underfunded candidate that did well in NH and went on to win the nomination. Bernie hung on for a while and managed to shift the conversation of the (ultimately unsuccessful) democratic campaign, but that's the most I can think of.

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Undaedalus t1_isor8ll wrote

Every candidate thinks they are a "serious candidate". Obviously, a lot of them are wrong. But in their heads, they are all certain they are going to win this thing. The first primaries are their first reality check.

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Darwins_Dog t1_isosxke wrote

Are you arguing that NH should continue to be first or go later? I've seen that statement used both ways; some like that NH is the weed out state, some want their vote to matter more.

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