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jeveret t1_ivnerj2 wrote

Basically they figure to have any chance of wining the democrats need to be way ahead in the 15% of the state that is more democratic to have any chance. If they aren’t even ahead in the small part of the state they had a chance in then they can safely assume the margin will just increase. It’s like a triathlon where democrats need to pull far ahead in the swim portion because republicans are way better at the bike and run. So if you are behind at the end of the swim you have no chance to make up ground even though the race isn’t even close to over.

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dangerzonebjj t1_ivo4h63 wrote

This is 15% of precincts not 15% of the total state votes. Some precincts are very populous

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Adeling79 t1_ivpsfji wrote

Is this right? Not saying you're not, just didn't realize that...

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dangerzonebjj t1_ivqso2w wrote

Yes. 15% of precincts reporting means 15% of all voting districts submitted their tallies. If Manchester and Nashua are in that 15% you can call anything that's not close

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bendadian1 t1_ivo9o2u wrote

The best explanation that answered the question exactly how OP asked it be answered!

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