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OldestPresidentEver t1_iwn0fpp wrote

Reply to comment by GraniteGeekNH in NH statehouse election cannot get any closer by GraniteGeekNH

There are a finite number of votes, races and options so this can absolutely be calculated.

Behavior and history are irrelevant, it would be a calculation of "what are the odds of the results of this election coming out exactly as they have based on the possibilities".

That said, you may also be trying to bait me into actually determining that, which I will not 😁

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GeorgeSix t1_iwp8c8g wrote

If you model each race as a coin flip, there's a 3.99% chance of a 200-200 tie. (Much more likely than my intuitive guess.)

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GraniteGeekNH OP t1_iwqcd69 wrote

if you model each race as a coin flip then it's irrelevant to reality, which is the point I (clumsily) tried to make - it's arithmetically/statistically OK but says nothing whatsoever about how likely it is that the situation will occur in a real election involving real people.

This is the "spherical horse in a vacuum" situation: Reduce the problem's complexities to fit our ability to calculate.

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