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GeorgeSix t1_iwp8c8g wrote

Reply to comment by OldestPresidentEver in NH statehouse election cannot get any closer by GraniteGeekNH

If you model each race as a coin flip, there's a 3.99% chance of a 200-200 tie. (Much more likely than my intuitive guess.)

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GraniteGeekNH OP t1_iwqcd69 wrote

if you model each race as a coin flip then it's irrelevant to reality, which is the point I (clumsily) tried to make - it's arithmetically/statistically OK but says nothing whatsoever about how likely it is that the situation will occur in a real election involving real people.

This is the "spherical horse in a vacuum" situation: Reduce the problem's complexities to fit our ability to calculate.

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