Snow Late Wednesday Into Thursday

Submitted by TheCloudBoy t3_10l1byz in newhampshire

I should preface this by saying I'm a meteorologist, yes we do exist and a few of us lurk (including me) here on Reddit. My only piece of advice for tonight's storm: don't buy the hype, please. It's shaping up to be another laughable event outside the White Mountains with zero impact to anything on Thursday. Many snow forecasts you've been seeing for our populated areas probably get torched, again....

These are two different pieces of guidance I'm using to forecast, not surprising that both have trended warmer since yesterday

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https://preview.redd.it/yz2enbork7ea1.png?width=984&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=c90314bd5114d2fc37ddb0c3e2c154c937c57af0

https://preview.redd.it/frsu4fork7ea1.png?width=984&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=71ba49fbad579410be6f29c687a33ad7d7d94db1

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Comments

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[deleted] t1_j5uq520 wrote

I'll follow the NWS guidelines instead of some random redditor posting cherry-picked model runs, thanks. https://www.weather.gov/gyx/weatherstory

If you turn out to be right, don't say I told you so. The models are probabilistic. Sometimes the contrarians are correct due to randomness.

It's probably going to be a mostly-north-of-Concord event, although all that icing before it turns to rain is going to make a mess everywhere. Also, do note that thousands of people in NH are still without power from the last storm, and this wet hot mess is really the last thing we need right now. These icy shitstorms are the fucking worst.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5yvd9p wrote

There are a couple of open fallacies in this that I need to address.

"Models are probabilistic": Incorrect. The majority of our guidance (including what you see above) is deterministic, governed complex differential equations. I'm building a statistical weather model at my job, so I'd hope I know the difference.

Skillful meteorologists understand the limitations of each guidance system, their biases, and make forecasts from there. One on display overnight was understanding how models fail to capture warm air advection and smaller features like robust dry air correctly. That's why you saw such a low forecast contrary to most others. Not only was it right, it wasn't aggressive enough but ultimately applied these principles.

Why did I not worry about a lot of wet snow? Simple: the snow growth sucked & the magnitude of warm air advection would easily overpower cold air, so the result would be a rapid transition to ice & rain. That minimizes power outages, which is what we saw.

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[deleted] t1_j5yweq3 wrote

We got the 2-4" forecast by the NWS in my neck of the woods before the changeover to rain. I'm certain of it because I was out driving in it.

I don't pay much attention to the actors on TV trying to hype up ratings.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5ywwyk wrote

I'd love to know which town, because some of the reports coming in from the White Mountains are even more lackluster than expected

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Chappy_Sinclair_ t1_j5u0rwe wrote

When weather readers fight.

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ZacPetkanas t1_j5u456q wrote

> When weather readers fight.

< Let them fight > meme :D

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5u5olp wrote

"Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos"

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GreatGrandaddyPurp t1_j63xmw1 wrote

"My father was a weatherman... and he skied. One day he goes off pist a little farther than usual. My mother grabs a ski pole to defend herself. He didn't like that. Not one bit. So, me watching, he takes the ski to her, laughing while he does it..."

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j65dhkd wrote

"He then turns to me and asks, why so cirrus? Puts the ski in my mouth. Let's put some powder on that face. And so, why so cirrus?"

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Fenwick19 t1_j5ux4dt wrote

None of the outlets I check seen to be hyping up this storm. NWS, WMUR, WBZ etc. They did a pretty decent job with the last two storms and if anything, under-forecasted. I don’t think they were very laughable events for the thousands of people that lost power.

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n0v3list t1_j5v3do9 wrote

Or for the people (like me) who've been working almost non stop since Sunday.. to say more snow is laughable is honestly kind of inconsiderate.

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SunshneThWerewolf t1_j5weoxq wrote

Right - I live in the southern lakes region and got 16 inches and a tree limb on my house from this last one.

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Jrzgrl1119 t1_j5xkvj3 wrote

I'm so sorry! We had a tree fall on our home during the Christmas storm. Not a fun experience

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allchoppedup t1_j5ul62u wrote

Sooo should I not bother picking the kids up early from daycare? Seacoast region.

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AssistantPretty5947 t1_j5unwpz wrote

Please don't hedge your bets on some online random claiming to be a meteorologist. That said, factual reports online say the snow in the seacoast region will be minimal to none.

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allchoppedup t1_j5uwq9k wrote

Annnnd it’s already snowing here, lol.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5uyhh3 wrote

Right on schedule, as expected it's very light with the main action not slated until sunset!

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5uv23l wrote

You've very likely seen me and my forecasts before, I promise you of that. Would you like to see my atmospheric science degree?

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AssistantPretty5947 t1_j5uxfp4 wrote

No, I'd like to know, if that's the case, why wouldn't you say that on TV?

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DietCokeMachine t1_j5uzsms wrote

Is it hard to predict the weather in New Hampshire? If so, what makes it so difficult compared to other areas of the country?

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5v0l3v wrote

That's honestly a great question! Given I grew up in New England and went to school in the mountains, my initial answer is no. That said, the caveat is there are a lot of microclimates to keep track of that variable terrain introduces, which I'd argue is the hardest part. The December 2020 snow blitz is an excellent example of this

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_tjb t1_j5vva23 wrote

I always figured that if you were a good meteorologist, or enjoyed a challenge, you would want to work in New England. If you sucked, or were lazy, move somewhere like California.

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reficius1 t1_j5wwvmt wrote

Welp, just stuck my head outside, Peterborough area. Continuous breaking glass kind of sound coming from the trees. Mix of light rain and sleet falling. Make of it what you will.

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NHiker469 t1_j602zrj wrote

Spring, spring, spring. I see you!

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Bobtom42 t1_j5tyvih wrote

"Meteorologist" no ECMWF, ICON, or GFS?

Just kidding, NAM rules.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5tz2gy wrote

Ha! Given this is going to be driven largely by elevation I've excluded the lower resolution guidance at this point, not to mention all 3 models got torched on how far north the warm front would come.

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Philosopheius t1_j5viyrv wrote

I'll be curious as to how much will be my area (30 min to VT/MA). This last storm dumped more than the 6-8 they had claimed. It was between 11-12" from what I was able to measure.

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margismith1111 t1_j5w7ljn wrote

Another night I slide all the way home

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ReauxChambeaux t1_j5ywwdc wrote

Well, I lost power (again) at midnight in the monadnock region. I guess I should’ve bought the hype

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5z7xr3 wrote

If it's still out, you're part of 0.42% of Eversource's total customer portfolio without power. It's a very good thing you didn't buy the hype.

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Chappy_Sinclair_ t1_j5z83j4 wrote

Thursday update: Thousands in New Hampshire without power after third winter storm in past week clears through

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5z8nhl wrote

3,837 out of 752,252 customers (a whopping 0.0051% of the total customer portfolio of all of NH) and less total than the lowest point at the end of the previous two storms. If we're going to consider this chaotic and panic over it, then there are states to the south where folks should consider moving to. This was a non-issue of an event, plain and simple.

Edit: The headline above & the article is lazily written in a way to entice a level of panic (in this case) that's totally unnecessary. "Thousands without power" sounds like a major event until you count the total number of outage jobs left, tally all the mutual aid crews into the state, and consider how many of the remaining customers out have been out the entire time.

I don't blame folks for feeling this way: with trust in TV journalism down below 10%, news directors at local TV stations frantically pivoted to this sensationalist approach in weather to keep ratings up & ad revenue flowing. That's why you see team coverage with multiple meteorologists & reporters for the weakest systems.

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Dave___Hester t1_j5ybg3n wrote

Yes, another "laughable" event where thousands in my area don't have power again. Cool.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5yja0y wrote

Yeah, given I lived in an area that was pummeled by both Hurricane Irene & a wet snow storm (each crippled power for 10 days at a time), I'd say this event is rather tame, or laughable. Total outages & outage jobs remain lower than at either of the last two storms, great news.

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