CitizenTed t1_jeeytwa wrote on March 31, 2023 at 3:03 PM

It's working class flight. I live in WA now and I see it as the area becomes stupendously unaffordable. Unless you make at least $80K/year, you pretty much have to leave. And that's just as a renter. If you want to buy a home the bidding starts at $850K and goes up from there. Only the wealthy need apply.

That's why you see the outflow from CA, NY, NJ into TX, FL, SC. It isn't salaried professionals leaving their 5bd 4ba McMansions because of the tax rates. It's the working class fleeing to survive.

So many folks want to move to my PacNW city it's almost sad. They post in forums: "I'm a barista with two cats looking to move in. Need a nice 2bd MiL ADU, can only pay $800 at most."

HA HA HA! So sad it's funny. TRIPLE that and you're at the entry level for rentals.

Off they go with their two cats to TX, FL, SC....

TheFortyDeuce t1_jefejaq wrote on March 31, 2023 at 4:44 PM

And this is what I’m doing. I make $84k and it’s rough. I’m looking at South Jersey, Delaware and Pennsylvania. Fortunately I work remotely full time. I would go further but all my family is still here.

LarryLeadFootsHead t1_jefi0i2 wrote on March 31, 2023 at 5:07 PM

Oh yeah PNW is fucked and erroneously gets a rep that somehow the upticks in homelessness is all drugs and vagrants when there's a fuckload of common as can be working people over time getting slapped up with prices being absurd with quite literally no where to go or sensible setup for living.

For NJ it already doesn't make a ton of sense to stay here if you're just not taking in a certain amount and honestly I would not be shocked if just things further evaporate and all that's left are archetypal situations of stacking in an apartment strength in numbers style complete with a commute that makes no sense whatsoever.

Not sure if we'll get a bombed out period and crime wave though but then again after a certain point what's really stopping someone in such dire desperate situations from crossing the line to felonious acts to survive, y'know?

BadAtUsernames9514 t1_jefjxgh wrote on March 31, 2023 at 5:19 PM

There's no empirical evidence supporting this assertion. New Jersey's labor force and employment is the highest it's ever been, and continuing to grow, according to the latest BLS numbers.

CitizenTed t1_jefnazj wrote on March 31, 2023 at 5:42 PM

"Employment" isn't the indicator. Affordability is. If you are employed but can't afford shelter, you move.

It's not that NJ is among the highest out-move states. It's actually #1 according to the US Census Bureau.

This is tied directly to housing affordability, as described here by the Rutgers State Policy lab.

On the west coast, the problem is reaching crisis levels. In my small city, there are very few people under 30 who don't rent rooms and crowd into apartments. At this point, living on your own is considered a luxury only the upper-middle class and wealthy can afford. I make twice the median wage in my city and I can afford my own place only because I've been in my apartment so long the rent is affordable. I could theoretically qualify for another 1bd apartment (typically in the $2000 range) but it would be a strain on my finances and make my life more precarious. I'd probably move, but not back to NJ.

BadAtUsernames9514 t1_jefosdy wrote on March 31, 2023 at 5:51 PM

If you're employed, can't afford housing and move out, you're no longer counted in the labor force of the state you left.

Do people get priced out of New Jersey? Yes. Is it a torrential flood that's leading to a hemorrhaging population? The 2020 census showed that was not the case, and I've seen little evidence indicating the estimates of the last few years are any more reliable.