You'd be surprised. Virtually every amendment passes, in my experience as a voter here the past decade. This one has the near (or maybe entirely) unanimous backing of the state legislature and I'd bet dollars to donuts it will pass, as will all 10 other amendments up for a vote...except for maybe #4, which seeks to prevent changes to how general elections are run for the 6 months preceding a general election. That one is a toss-up on my bingo card.