Rottimer t1_j7x09s1 wrote
Reply to comment by tiregroove in Median New York rent passes $4,000 a month in January by geoxol
The curbed article is an opinion using the Postal Service's Change of Address Requests - which the author even admits has problems. It's almost as if he picked out part of this report:
And then ignored everything else that went against the idea that the population is falling. I found this bit particularly fascinating:
>And I spent a long time trying to make sense of data from the New York City Water Board, which shows that the amount of waste treated by the city’s processing plants jumped in 2021. (Maybe everybody had shit their pants when they found out how much their rent was going up?) But it turns out those plants treat not just human waste but stormwater too, and 2021 was rainier than usual. At least I think that’s the reason — the Water Board quit returning my emails after a while.
So the Waterboard is treating more waste, but he dismisses it as just more rain. Did he try to speak to an third party to make sense of the data? Or did he just not want to make sense of the data?
Calling moving companies doesn't really help much either because of course people aren't generally going to call local NYC moving companies if they're moving into NYC from elsewhere. Rather they'd do that if they're moving out and use one local to them for moving into the city.
I'm not saying that the report on CNBC is right. I'm just saying the curbed article is also ridiculous.
[deleted] t1_j7xzkaq wrote
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thisismynewacct t1_j7z0m03 wrote
They do that for taxes. They still live here
Rottimer t1_j7z4tzh wrote
And that’s a whole other issue. People living here for 180 days per year to avoid contributing to the tax base and then others just cheating by reporting their address as elsewhere but spending 100% of their time in nyc.
I know 3 high income people (300,000+ salary) that have done that, where they report living in low or no income tax state because they own homes there, but spend nearly 100% of their time in nyc paying rent. It’s something they can do with their employer because they’re remote and only come into the office a couple days per month.
[deleted] t1_j7zc7ml wrote
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Papa--Mochi t1_j7z54o0 wrote
>So the Waterboard is treating more waste, but he dismisses it as just more rain. Did he try to speak to an third party to make sense of the data? Or did he just not want to make sense of the data?
There's a reliable third-party that's already confirmed his claim that NYC population was off a cliff even in the back half of 2021: The government census says NYC's population was down 400,000 in July, compared to April 2020.
I get why people don't want to accept it, but it's right there in black and white.
Rottimer t1_j7z6gok wrote
And that makes a lot of sense given how covid hit this city. A LOT of people that could, left. The question is whether the population rebounded in 2022. There are a lot of indicators that it has and that would explain the increase in rents. It could be collusion using software or some combination of factors. But I don’t think it’s reasonable to definitively say that the population has stayed depressed when there is conflicting data and we know the Census PEP has consistently under estimated.
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