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WickhamAkimbo t1_jcb2ino wrote

Reply to comment by ManhattanRailfan in Study shows those released under NY's bail reform laws are less likely to get rearrested by mowotlarx

Yes, I'm confident in the links I posted. I posted links to data across the entire city of 8 million+ and you posted a link to a study with a sample size of 713.

> Also, it's not exactly hard to look at a crime heat map of NYC and see how it almost directly maps onto the income level of the residents in a given neighborhood. The only exceptions are places like Midtown that have tons of people in them, but very few actual residents so the crime rates get skewed.

And now you're trying to conduct an experiment on the fly with some hand-wavy methodology and random speculation.

Address the data: why does the group with the highest poverty rate in the city have the lowest crime rate? How does that work if poverty is overwhelmingly the strongest predictor of criminality? Does it perhaps suggest that other factors are at play?

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ManhattanRailfan t1_jcb47gr wrote

You haven't given me any relevant data. All you've done is given me correlations. Why not look at the actual income of convicted arrestees rather than using race as a proxy like some sort of nazi? You're also missing the nuance of economic insecurity vs poverty. A person can be impoverished and not economically insecure. Asian immigrant communities tend to have strong social support networks that make food and housing security less of an issue. Black and Latino communities are also far more heavily policed, so that data wouldn't be valid even if it did indicate what you claim it does.

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WickhamAkimbo t1_jccbwsy wrote

I gave very, very accurate data on a much larger scale than anything you offered. I gave you two facts together that are very contrary to your view of the world, and you are here making garbage remarks like

> A person can be impoverished and not economically insecure

I honestly can't tell if you're joking with this stuff. You want to believe what you want to believe. Fine. Believe that poverty is insurmountable and the entire world is out to get you. Fail and fail harder. Play the victim. Maybe one day you'll figure out that you're fucking yourself.

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ManhattanRailfan t1_jccj92f wrote

Dude, whether the data is accurate or not is irrelevant. The conclusion you're drawing from it cannot be drawn with that data alone. You're making way too many assumptions.

And yes, a person can be in poverty, but if they have a stable source of food and housing, then they're in much better shape than someone who doesn't technically fall below the poverty line but goes hungry every night so their kid can eat. These concepts shouldn't be particularly difficult to grasp.

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WickhamAkimbo t1_jcdjvw5 wrote

> The conclusion you're drawing from it cannot be drawn with that data alone.

Uh, yes, it can. The conclusion I gave was clearly stated as "The group in NYC with the highest poverty rate has the lowest crime rate." That's true and supported by those independent sources. You don't need a sociologist to add an "and" to those sentences.

You tried to discredit the statement with some very poorly-thought-out speculation on your part, and probably didn't take 60 seconds to challenge your own worldview.

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ManhattanRailfan t1_jcdkvfq wrote

Okay, but the implication you're trying to make from that "fact" (arrest rates are not the same as crime rates) is unsupported by it. The only thing it proves is that you're a racist. Race is irrelevant here. And as I said, the data is skewed because black and brown communities are overpoliced. Looking at crime and wealth maps of the city is far more relevant despite what you're saying because the vast majority of crimes tend to happen in the community of the person committing said crime.

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WickhamAkimbo t1_jcfboww wrote

> Okay, but the implication you're trying to make from that "fact" (arrest rates are not the same as crime rates) is unsupported by it.

That's not the point I made either explicitly or implicitly. The point I made is that you are wrong; that crime has more causes than just poverty, and in many cases, poverty isn't even the biggest contributing factor.

> The only thing it proves is that you're a racist. Race is irrelevant here.

You call me a racist because you don't have any valid response to what I'm saying. You panic and use whatever you can to avoid looking at the numbers because they totally disprove your very simplistic view of the world.

> And as I said, the data is skewed because black and brown communities are overpoliced.

Wrong again. Victimization surveys mirror the arrest rates given above. Victims themselves, including black and brown victims, identify their attackers in proportion to arrest rates. That's relevant when you claim that poverty causes crime and yet the most impoverished racial group is vastly underrepresented in crime stats.

YOU ARE WRONG. Your feelings don't matter. I'm giving you some very cold hard data that doesn't care about your emotions, and you are flopping around trying your best to ignore it.

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