wateringtheflowers t1_jcc1tvi wrote
Reply to comment by Yourgrandsonishere in Study shows those released under NY's bail reform laws are less likely to get rearrested by mowotlarx
Page 2 of the report says the study was funded by Arnold Foundation. Then go to Arnold Foundation’s website and see what causes they support.
I agree that the only valid takeaway from this study is that the data is mixed (but that’s not the kind of conclusion that is conducive to receiving additional funding from the Arnold Foundation). The relatively small differences in comparison groups from which the authors try to derive conclusions is completely outweighed by the fact that the comparison groups were not (and could not be) comparable, because one group was before the pandemic and the other was not. The effect of the pandemic on crime and policing in the city was far more significant than the effect of bail reform. If anything, I would guess that because arrests were down significantly during 2020, re-arrests would also be down. So an increase in re-arrests, even if slight, is something that needs to be looked into more carefully.
matzoh_ball t1_jcdnfsg wrote
The report addresses potential confounding issues due to COVID. In a nutshell, clearance rates were down during 2020 and declined-prosecution rates were up in 2020, and both of those things went back to normal in 2021 (links to that are in the report in the “limitations” section). However, since they tracked re-arrest over two years for everyone, the “pandemic effect” affects (aka downward biases) the re-arrest rates for both the pre-reform group and the post-reform group.
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