McCarthy also desperately needs every last vote or he loses the speakership.

Even with the 6 present votes for Speaker in the 15th round, his margin is 2 votes. There’s an open house seat in VA that will probably go Dem in the February special election. If Santos is forced to resign and a Dem wins the special election to refill that seat, with 6 present votes, McCarthy’s margin is 215-214.

In that scenario it wouldn’t just take a single member to force a vote to oust him as speaker. At that point it would only take a single member flipping to remove him from the speakership altogether and that includes any of the 6 present votes changing their vote to an actual candidate.