bildramer t1_jaevoep wrote
Reply to comment by platoprime in From discs in the sky to faces in toast, learn to weigh evidence sceptically without becoming a closed-minded naysayer by ADefiniteDescription
Where there's smoke there's fire (i.e. many people saying the same thing needs to be explained). Arguments like "surely that many people can't be wrong" or "they came to their conclusions mostly independently" are often implied but not stated. To refute those, learning about the phenomenon of information cascades is very helpful; it explains how large fractions of the population can end up believing something based on very little evidence.
The tl;dr is that if, for a particular decision, only the decision is visible and not the detailed reasoning/evidence/information, and a large majority values "social proof" or conformity more than their private information, then their private information doesn't get incorporated into the public set of information, so only the very early people who decide first get to define that public set. It's a very "sticky" process. For example, consider people in a crowd deciding whether to panic: One or two people possibly saw something concerning and screamed or ran; then, later people react less to the actual seen thing (or lack of it), and more to the number of other people reacting or not reacting. The early or closest people get to set the "tone" - if there's no reaction from others, you infer it was not worth panicking after all, and don't join, strengthening that impression; if there is, you infer it was, and join in. That can easily end up causing panics out of nowhere, or not causing panics when you'd expect them.
Once you know this, it's easy to see how millions of people can be wrong, and how the "wisdom of crowds" fails to work in such cases. Then, however, you also need to make sure the scientists themselves don't suffer from an information cascade, and they usually do - they didn't all arrive at their opinions independently from scratch. New information being available and undoing a wrong cascade partially explains Kuhn's paradigm shifts. Even in the hard sciences, the social environment can become so bad that scientists conform to fashions when they shouldn't, for no good reason - it's why plate tectonics took so long to dislodge earlier shittier theories despite the strong evidence, for example.
So there's no real way to tell which ideas like homeopathy do or don't work based solely on judging their disparity in popularity among different crowds (at least not without risking being fooled that way); you have to reason about them, at least a little bit. Or trust that experts will usually get it right regardless, which is reasonable, but not foolproof.
Mustelafan t1_jaf0mu6 wrote
>information cascades
I think this term and concept will be very useful to me. Thanks for sharing!
platoprime t1_jaeyi06 wrote
>it's why plate tectonics took so long to dislodge earlier shittier theories despite the strong evidence, for example.
I love it when people argue against the eventual correctness of science by citing a time science stopped being wrong and started being correct.
Never mind they never have an alternative to scientific inquiry. Yes it's flawed but it's the least flawed and most effective avenue of investigation. Wait did I say "love"? I mean "loath".
bildramer t1_jaezqt5 wrote
I have no issue with scientific inquiry, and if you carefully read my comment you'll notice most of the problem is with the word "eventual" here. Sometimes you can outperform "science" by following scientific principles instead of looking at what groups of scientists say; nullius in verba, after all. Also, Lysenkoism, if you want a citation of the opposite. Sure, that wasn't science but state power, but where in the world does science operate without state power influencing it?
platoprime t1_jaf0485 wrote
Science never promised to be correct now it's just more correct than any other method of determining fact.
> Sometimes you can outperform "science" by following scientific principles instead of looking at what groups of scientists say
And sometimes using a magic 8 ball to guide your life will work out.
Or, instead of going by what scientists say, which is dumb, you go by what they can prove and what evidence they provide.
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